Do We Concede More Than We should?
I always had the impression that we don't convert enough chances and that we concede goals too easily. Popey has said the same a couple of times on the Don't Go To Bed podcast. His words were something like - it seems we have to do a whole lot to score a goal whereas our opponents seem to score way too easily.
Looking at xG (expected goals). it's quite the opposite
Our xG per game is 1.68. Our goals scored is 1.72. That means that we score more goals than we're expected to score. I always have the impression we don't convert enough chances. But watching the Liverpool/City game yesterday there were a lot of good chances missed by both teams. It happens to everyone. As xG says, that we're not doing as badly (on average) at converting our chances.
xG can be deceptive. But it's based on stats that happen across all football games. It takes the position the striker is in and collects data that tells us how often the striker scores from that position.
On the other side, our xG against is 0.89, whereas goals conceded is 0.72. That means our opponents score less goals than they're expected to score.
In short, we do better than average with the chances we create and our opponents do worse than average with the chances they create. It's completely the opposite of what I thought it would be.
An explanation is that we get caught up with emotion. We naturally think we're unlucky and deserve better than what we got. Goals for and against say we're 2.4 times better than our opponents. That's rather impressive. xG says we should be 1.9 times better than our opponents. So, according to xG, we do a better job of converting our chances than our opponents do.
Looking at xG (expected goals). it's quite the opposite
Our xG per game is 1.68. Our goals scored is 1.72. That means that we score more goals than we're expected to score. I always have the impression we don't convert enough chances. But watching the Liverpool/City game yesterday there were a lot of good chances missed by both teams. It happens to everyone. As xG says, that we're not doing as badly (on average) at converting our chances.
xG can be deceptive. But it's based on stats that happen across all football games. It takes the position the striker is in and collects data that tells us how often the striker scores from that position.
On the other side, our xG against is 0.89, whereas goals conceded is 0.72. That means our opponents score less goals than they're expected to score.
In short, we do better than average with the chances we create and our opponents do worse than average with the chances they create. It's completely the opposite of what I thought it would be.
An explanation is that we get caught up with emotion. We naturally think we're unlucky and deserve better than what we got. Goals for and against say we're 2.4 times better than our opponents. That's rather impressive. xG says we should be 1.9 times better than our opponents. So, according to xG, we do a better job of converting our chances than our opponents do.