It’s looking like the Cincinnati Reds got a bargain in Nick Martinez

The latest round of pitching signings suggests they just may have.

When Nick Martinez officially accepted the $21.05 million Qualifying Offer given him by the Cincinnati Reds earlier this November, it was hard not to think about the dent it would put in the spendthrift team’s payroll. When the team has numerous voids in its lineup and an ownership group who persistently parks the payroll in the bottom third of the league, that’s a chunk of change that could have gone a long way towards addressing needs elsewhere, in theory.

In theory.

As teams venture deeper into this offseason, it’s becoming more and more clear that the Reds are walking into the 2025 season with a bargain in Martinez. Just last night, for instance, the New York Mets stumped up for a two-year deal to Frankie Montas, one that will guarantee him $17 million for each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons and afford him the chance to opt-out after 2025 should his fortunes be good enough to prompt him. Thats the same Frankie Montas who pitched to a 4.84 ERA/4.71 FIP in 150.2 IP split between the Reds and Milwaukee Brewers last year - the same one who missed almost all of the 2023 season after major shoulder surgery.

Following Montas off the board was Matthew Boyd, who inked a two-year deal this morning with the Chicago Cubs that could net him $30 million. Boyd pitched well in just over 39 IP last year after returning to the mound following major surgery, but he’s logged a grand total of 124.0 IP since the start of the 2022 season due to injuries and bounced between a trio of franchises in that time - all while sporting a 4.14 ERA, a mark that’s actually well below his career mark of 4.85.

What the Reds did not get in Martinez is multiple years of control, but it’s looking more and more like the quality of pitcher they got will end up being a bargain relative to the rest of the market. And given that the Reds needed precisely what Martinez offers - top of the rotation upside, flexibility of role, and availability on a deal that won’t eat up their limited payroll for years to come - his signing may well end up looking better and better by the day.

Such is the reality of draft pick compensation being attached to QOs. Neither Montas nor Boyd entered free agency with the kinds of disclaimers that Martinez would have if he’d declined the Reds offer. While it’s easy to suggest that Martinez would’ve signed for a significant sum more than either of his aforementioned peers, it’s hard to truly set a comparison when any team signing him would have to forfeit future draft picks - and the draft pool money that comes along with said picks. So, the Reds used their unique leverage in this very particular situation to their advantage, and while it initially seemed to be pricier than they’d like, they’ve pretty clearly stumbled into a bargain.

“Stumbled” is my not doing them enough justice, I suppose. They pretty clearly gauged the market quite well in advance of it all, so this is no fluke. Beyond that, Martinez on a one-year deal with no dead money attached could make him an incredible trade chip this summer should things once again go sour for the Reds, so his return comes with an added fail-safe option.

That said, it doesn’t make Martinez’s deal any cheaper. It’s a bargain, but it still means he’s earning more in 2025 than any player the Reds have rostered since Joey Votto. He’s a bargain based on what he’d cost elsewhere, but it remains to be seen whether that bargain opened up enough funds for the Reds to firmly address their remaining issues substantively. Of course, if he’d rejected the Reds QO, the Reds would still be chasing starting pitching on the open market right now, and I dare you to find an option out there who’d be in their price range who’d sound half as appealing.