How do the Guardians Fix their Lack of Starting Pitching?

Addressing the big need

Dead silence from the Guardians’ front office as fans begin to question what the team’s roster will even look like come Opening Day 2025.

The team has just lost out on the free agent starting pitcher option viewed by many as most realistic with Matthew Boyd to the Chicago Cubs. Scott Boras worked his devil magic once again by getting Boyd for two years and $14.5 million in average annual value despite being 34 years old (MLB Trade Rumors projected 2 years and $12.5 million in AAV).

With prices looking high so far early in the offseason, it is hard not to have some concerns about how the Guardians are going to address their starting pitching issue, if at all.

The Guardians are so incredibly thin on starting pitching, and if they go through yet another year of poor injury luck for their rotation, there is a very poor chance that the team reaches the same spot in the Postseason that they got to in the 2024 season. Starting pitching has been a problem for Cleveland over the last two years, but it is expensive to acquire and the Guardians tend not to commit to starting pitchers in longterm deals.

It may be time to start limiting expectations in this type of pitching market. No matter what, the team needs external help. Even our internal options may not be enough to fill out a rotation if they continue to be impacted by significant injuries for yet another year.

So, what scraps will they be able to scavenge, and will they do it?

RHP Michael Soroka - 27 Years Old, 2 years $14 Million Projected by MLBTR

Starting off with who I would like the most for a good deal is Michael Soroka, who before his two right Achilles tears was a staple in the Atlanta Braves’ rotation. Because of those injuries, he spent two full years away from pitching a big league game and came back in 2023 to pitch 32.1 innings.

In 2024, however, he more than doubled that amount and made great progress towards returning to form. He posted a 4.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 4.95 FIP. Those are definitely not eye-opening at all, but his Stuff+ stayed a steady 96 and if he can turn down that 4.97 BB/9 he can limit runs a whole lot more easily. He also has a career 47% groundball rate which fits well with Cleveland’s excellent infield defense.

RHP Trevor Williams - 32 Years Old, 2 years $9 Million Projected by FanGraphs Crowdsource

Trevor Williams is one of my other favorites. The 9-year vet is coming off a shortened season where he still put up some of the best stats in his career so far. In 2024, Williams posted a 2.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 2.79 FIP in 66.2 innings pitched. He has a good combination of efficiency and control with a 7.97 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9.

If FanGraphs is correct (Ben Clemens projects him for 1 year and $11 million), I, of course, think that he’s worth it. Let’s hope that the Guardians’ brass believes so as well.

RHP Spencer Turnbull - 32 Years Old, 1 year $7 Million Projected by MLBTR

First and foremost, the biggest issue that sort of turns me away from Turnbull is the fact that he hasn’t spent a single year away from the 60-day IL since the beginning of the 2021 season. He’s had a history with injury issues regarding his throwing arm, and with him reaching his older age, it might be best to be cautious with how much we’d give him.

That being said, when he does pitch he pitches well. In 54.1 IP in 2024, Turnbull churned out a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.85 FIP. He limited walks well with a 3.31 BB/9 and K’ed nearly ten per nine as well. He should be a very cheap get, considering the fact that his right arm is going to be a concern, so I’d be in favor of going after him at the right price.

RHP Michael Lorenzen - 32 Years Old, $7.8 Million Projected AAV by Spotrac

I’d really like to see Lorenzen in a Guardians uniform in 2025. I think that he is probably your second surest bet to be reliable, just behind Trevor Williams. He put up a 3.31 ERA and allowed a 1.24 WHIP in 2024, and he served really well as a contact pitcher. Lorenzen’s walk numbers are a bit concerning, but I believe that he limits enough soft contact to merit him a spot in the middle or back end of the rotation.

I also believe that Lorenzen will end up falling a bit short of his projected AAV (he made $4.5 million last season), so if that happens then signing him could be made much easier on the Guardians’ part.

LHP Kyle Hart - 32 Years Old, 2 years and $14.6 million Projected by FanGraphs’ Crowdsource

Kyle Hart is an interesting case, as like Ben Lively, Hart spent time in the KBO. He played in the KBO for the 2024 season and put up very nice numbers. He limited runs well, and kept runners off the bases with a 1.03 WHIP. He also did an amazing job in 2024 keeping the ball on the ground when it was put in play. His 60.3% ground-ball rate is something that can really entice the Guardians as they look for guys who can pitch to contact to round out the rotation.

FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens projects 3 years and $24 million for Hart. If that holds true, that may be a little rich for Cleveland. However, if his groundball rate is viewed as something projectable, it may be worth it

Bottom Line

This isn’t the best group of pitchers available, but I think that it’s what is the most realistic. I’d hope that maybe we go above and beyond to acquire a top-of-the-line starter, but these guys can serve very well to compliment Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams.

What is true, however, is that we must add somebody who can at least make an impact either in the back-end of the rotation or in the middle of it. In a perfect world, we’d be making a big signing so that our rotation would have more firepower. But as Guardians fans, the expectations won’t be that high. Which is why we have to make-do with what we can.