How a Nolan Arenado trade could be clever enough for even the Mariners’ ownership group
Despite an uncompetitive ownership group, Seattle could improve their roster and credibility.
It’s a glorious time to enjoy third base play in MLB. While there have been better seasons at the position in recent memory, the sport once again saw star level play from several players, as well as more average or better contributions to team success from any position besides shortstop (by fWAR). Per Baseball Reference, the third base position was an average of 2.1 bWAR, third-highest among individual positions for hitters behind shortstop (3.5) and center field (2.4). To tally forward effectively in MLB is to have a firm grasp on the hot corner. The Seattle Mariners, however, are once again playing hot potato. One solution to this problem is to dive into the trade market, reeling in a big name whose production still passes muster, albeit not quite at the expectations of his paycheck: St. Louis Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado.
Arenado is a satisfactory solution more than a slam dunk. The potential future Hall of Famer will be 34, likely in the good range in lieu of his perennial MVP runner-up status from 2015-2022. Still a sharp defender at 10 Outs Above Average (95th percentile) in 2024, the former Colorado Rockies star put up another steady season but saw his power dip below career norms, even accounting for his many years at Coors.
.272/.325/.394 and a 102 wRC+ would have been a healthy boost for most Mariners infielders last year, but there’s real concern in a player who averaged 30 homers a year in his first three seasons with St. Louis mustering barely half that sum in 2024.
In late May, Arenado spoke of struggling to align his mechanics effectively. While he dismissed a connection to the back spasms and wrist discomfort he’d played through in 2023, the SoCal native may have been limited by them or their lingering mechanical impacts all the same. Since debuting in 2013, Arenado has made just three trips to the injured list - a month in 2014 for a broken finger, a mercy conclusion to a lost 2020 for a sore shoulder, and a similar move at the end of September 2023 for his back with St. Louis eliminated.
He’s been one of the stars of the sport over the last decade, and has been compensated appropriately. Thanks to the family of placid opossums masquerading as savvy businessmen who’ve run the Rockies over that time, St. Louis is still receiving payouts for his deal, meaning the effective remaining cost for Arenado is 3 years, $64 million. Not outlandish, but this is John Stanton and co.’s money we’re dealing with. Cash can’t just be given to a good player. Too easy. Predictable. Based on a long history of successful pay for services arrangements in the sport. No, this must be clever for it to pass muster and have a chance at improving Seattle’s division odds in 2025.
Seattle cleverly cut 3B Josh Rojas to save a few million bucks already this winter, bidding farewell to their primary 3B of 2024. While the prospect of improving on Rojas should excite Seattle fans and the organization at all levels, longtime Astros star Alex Bregman is the only clear option, likely to corral nine figures and an annual value of around $25-30m. If any number of reasons leave Bregman too much to stomach, the rest of the market is slim, with two of the next three players by projected fWAR production being... Rojas and Jorge Polanco. Retreads aren’t clever, nor will the M’s current options.
Dylan Moore can handle third acceptably in a pinch, but he can’t cover both third and second. Youngsters Ryan Bliss and Cole Young could handle expanded roles, as has been reported by Ken Rosenthal to be Seattle’s present inclination. If they go young and unknown at second, all the more reason to have a better-known quantity at third. The depth on hand is dicey. Recently acquired Austin Shenton has played 3B, but he is not a strong defender, and better suits the 1B side of things. The 32 year old Moore has also never spent a full season as an everyday player, with a career-high 441 plate appearances and 135 games in 2024.
The good news is that Arenado wouldn’t likely cost Seattle much in a trade on his own. St. Louis is one of precious few clubs with a clear intention to rebuild entering 2025. That means ample incentive to play promising prospects and youngsters like Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese over Arenado. The West Coast kid already waived his no-trade clause to flee Colorado’s rebuild, speaking often of his desire to contend, and for the first time since the mid-90s, Seattle is a more serious contender than the Redbirds.
If it were a straight swap, Seattle could send a minor prospect and have St. Louis eat some cash, call it a day. That would be great, and reminiscent of the Mike Leake trade of 2017. Brock Rodden, perhaps you have Rayder Ascanio in your future?
However, there’s nothing clever in such a deal, and by clever I must confess I mean cheap, because that is what the M’s conceive it as. It would be clever for Seattle to flip Mitch Haniger to the Cardinals in such a deal, offsetting $15.5 million of Arenado’s money but creating a greater cost in terms of talent that must be paid. Even at this level, the off-set isn’t likely to be immense, but the prospect cost would be more recognizable. This could be a talented but distant project of a prospect like Tai Peete, particularly if St. Louis balanced the ledger with one of their handful of competent southpaw relievers a la John King or JoJo Romero.
These are the easy swaps, the viability of which make it easy to envision a deal finally coming to fruition after years of tantalization between St. Louis and Seattle. Now that the Cardinals are truly rebuilding, however, a deal is even easier to envision, with a stable of intriguing position players at positions the M’s sorely lack and Seattle’s talented farm system offering plenty of promise for the cicada-like return of Cardinals Devil Magic. The M’s want to improve their second base situation directly and with confidence? Fold Cole Young and a low minors flier like Ashton Izzi into the deal to bring back a more established, closer to free agency variation of Young in Brendan Donovan. An under-stimulated mind can wander forests of fantasy and sail seas of adventure between these clubs, and believe me friends, Willson Contreras has a Northwest Green wing in my mind palace.
But this is a place for clever moves, not truly massive improvements. Arenado makes a difference all the same, and would bring a welcome stability to the quicksand that’s taken root in the dirt that Kyle Seager and Eugenio Suárez once roamed. The power slide is worrisome, however a merely passable power Arenado is still a strong starter. If he maintains his diminished state, he’ll still be a noticeable improvement for the M’s, and he’s likelier to contribute than anyone short of Bregman in free agency, while costing them less talent-wise than younger, cheaper options like Alec Bohm or Jordan Westburg via trade. A trade similar to the one they made in dealing away Geno would, poetically, be a clever solution for 2025 and beyond.