Why Ireland’s government was one of the few worldwide to be re-elected this year

At the end of a year that saw parties around the world punished by voters, Ireland’s centre-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to avoid the incumbents’ curse.

The coalition partners’ combined first preference votes fell by just 0.4 points – to 42.7% – compared with the 2020 general election. This is a remarkable result, given the high cost of living and continuing housing crisis – all the more so for Fine Gael, which has been in government since 2011.

Sinn Féin’s popularity was the story of the 2020 general election. It emerged as the first choice of nearly a quarter of the electorate (24.5%) but failed to nominate enough candidates to capitalise on this and ended up with fewer seats than Fianna Fáil.

Biding its time in opposition, the party set to work presenting itself as a government in waiting. The polls seemed to confirm this status. The party’s popularity peaked at 36% in 2022 but this figure underwent a slow – and then rapid – decline. An unwillingness to adopt an anti-immigration position, when the issue was becoming politicised in Ireland, saw it lose support with some of its supporters.

This was confirmed in June at the local and European elections. The party’s 11.8% vote share was a very poor showing. Subsequent scandals around the party, on both sides of the border, further damaged its standing with the electorate.

Sinn Féin’s share of 19% of the first preference vote on Friday represents a partial recovery for the party. But it is, nonetheless, a steep decline (5.5 %) from their 2020 performance, leaving Sinn Féin with no realistic path to power.

Why did the incumbent vote hold up?

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been rewarded by voters who believe they have managed the economy well. Buoyed by strong corporation tax receipts, Ireland is running a budget surplus of at least €23 billion (£19 billion). As a result, all parties have committed to substantial increases in public expenditure, both current and capital.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have essentially stolen the thunder of leftwing parties. Voters have been asked to choose between parties based on the package of goodies on offer. Sinn Féin’s manifesto included promises to increase the minimum wage and abolish property tax. Fianna Fáil offered a range of tax cuts, an increase in the state pension and free GP visits for all children under twelve.

As well as their own tax-cutting pledges, Fine Gael promised to abolish fees for third-level students (students in higher education) and to create a savings account for newborns, with a minimum state contribution of €1,000.

The heat has also been taken out of the immigration issue. In the exit poll just 6% of voters said that immigration was the most important issue in determining their vote. Housing and homelessness came out on top (28%). But whereas Sinn Féin owned that issue in the 2020 campaign, all of the parties now have comprehensive plans to increase housing supply.

The lack of stark divisions between the parties, coupled with the lack of a clear alternative government, led many commentators to characterise the campaign as “flat” and “boring” – a sharp departure from the mood for change in 2020. The drop in voter turnout to below 60% suggests indifference among segments of the electorate. By contrast, the 2020 election saw 62.9% of registered voters cast their ballots.

While Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have had a good to very good election, their junior coalition partner, the Green party, has been devastated. They lost all but one of their seats.

Likely coalition partners

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s strong performance and recent history of working together puts them in the driving seat to form the next government. However, at 86 seats they have fallen slightly short of the 88 needed for a bare majority. They will need to form a coalition.

Ireland’s fractured party system has historically meant it can take weeks or months to form a government.

It seems likely that most voters are going to get the government they want. Nearly half of voters indicated that their preferred coalition government would consist of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (31%), the two with independents (9%) or the two with a smaller party or parties (9%). More than a third (35%) said they would like to see Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil as the next taoiseach (prime minister).

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out sharing power with Sinn Féin, and both have signalled that Labour is their preferred partner. This seems the most likely outcome. Though, following a devastating election for the Labour party in 2016, after a term of office with Fine Gael, opinions within the party vary as to whether going back into government is worth the risk. Irish voters have a history of heavily penalising the smallest party in the coalition at the next election.

The strong performance of the Social Democrats makes them a contender, too. But the larger parties could also do business with some of the independent TDs (members of parliament) who will be taking up their seats in the next Dáil. Indeed, given their combined seat total, and after the outsize impact of the Greens on the direction of government policy, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may prefer this option.

Lisa Keenan has carried out research for the non-profit organisation Women for Election.

Gail McElroy is a member of the National Election and Democracy Study Management Board of An Coimisiún Toghcháin (the Irish Electoral Commission). She was the TCD lead on the IT/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll.