Examining Penguins’ recent trade speculation

Nils Hoglander and Kirby Dach have been two of the players most recently connected to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Kyle Dubas has been a busy man so far this season for the Pittsburgh Penguins, already making a handful of trades since the since the middle of August.

He has shipped out Lars Eller for future draft picks, made a prospect trade to bring in Rutger McGroarty from Winnipeg, and most recently acquired Philip Tomasino from the Nashville Predators.

It is not exactly Jim Rutherford aggressiveness, but it’s also not Ron Hextall sitting on his hands.

From the sounds of the NHL rumor mill, he might still be looking to make more moves.

At this point we already know who is likely to leave Pittsburgh, and who the Penguins might like/want to trade. With defenseman Marcus Pettersson, it is probably just a matter of when and where he goes as opposed to if he goes. They would probably love to dump some long-term salaries in Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell, Ryan Graves and Tristan Jarry if at all possible. They also seem to be in the market to potentially add more players like Tomasino that might need a fresh start or a chance of scenery with a new organization.

They were reportedly interested in defenseman David Jiricek before he was traded from Columbus to Minnesota, but they probably should not have been willing to match the price he ended up going for (they are in no position to be trading a 2025 first-round draft pick right now).

Still, I like the overall mindset of going for players like McGroarty, Tomasino and Jiricek even if it does not always work out.

Which brings us to some of the more recent names to be connected to the Penguins — Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander and Montreal’s Kirby Dach.

Let’s start with Hoglander, who has seemingly been on the trade block in Vancouver from the moment he arrived in the NHL.

In talking about Hoglander’s current struggles in Vancouver on his recent 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman mentioned the Penguins as a team that could be interested and could give him a fresh start. Sometimes it is tough to figure out when “insiders” like Friedman are speaking with first-hand knowledge or are just riffing ideas based on vibes (that is not meant to sound like a criticism), but I can see how the dots might get connected. He is struggling, he probably needs a change of scenery, the Penguins are willing to take chances on guys that might need a change of scenery, the Canucks need a defenseman and the Penguins have a defenseman they are probably going to trade,

Hoglander does not begin in the first year of a three-year contract that pays him $3 million against the cap until next season, and has just two goals and three assists in his first 23 games this season entering play on Tuesday.

That production has taken a big hit from his 2023-24 season when he had a small breakout year in Vancouver with 24 goals. After scoring just 26 goals over his first three years in the NHL, it was a big step forward.

But there was always a question of sustainability with it because the biggest change in his production was the fact he suddenly started scoring on more than 20 percent of his shots after never coming close to that mark in the early part of his career. I’m always skeptical of the random breakout year that was driven by the shooting percentage spike, especially when there is not much else behind it to suggest that percentage is going to maintain itself.

While Hoglander did see some general improvements in his ability to generate chances, it was not a huge jump, while there also was not really much of a jump in his shot generation. In fact, his 7.43 shots per 60 minutes (all situations) was actually lower than it was in his first two years in the league.

So far this season he has not only seem a drop in his shooting percentage, his shot generation is down to the lowest level of his career.

He’s not getting the chances or the shooting luck.

That doesn’t mean Hoglander can’t play, won’t bounce back, or that a chance of scenery wouldn’t do him good. I am also not saying I would be opposed to taking a chance on him because, hell, I just argued this past week I want to see them take all of the chances on any young wild card that is available.

But there are a couple of things to consider here.

The first is the contract.

On one hand, $3 million per year over through the 2027-28 season is an expensive gamble on a “change of scenery” move.

Then again, how much does the cap really matter to the Penguins right now if they are entering some sort of rebuild? Especially if they can dump some other salaries elsewhere on the roster to gain flexibility? There is also a lot to be said for having cost-certainty on a player, and if it is not spent on Hoglander it is going to be spent on the next version of Matt Grzelcyk or Kevin Hayes or Noel Accairi and I just do not really have much of an appetite for that. At least with Hoglander you are talking about a player that might still have some upside and a chance to maybe get better.

The second is what are you going to give up?

Are you willing to trade Marcus Pettersson for him? Would Pettersson have more value in a different sort of trade? Is he a first-round pick rental or is he a multiple second-round pick rental? Could you get Hoglander plus something else?

Dach is the other player Friedman loosely connected with the Penguins, and in this case he made it pretty clear it was just him thinking of names that would make sense. Follow-up reports out of Montreal indicated the Canadiens have no interest in moving him and that they still see him as a part of their future (though, to be fair, what else are going they going to put out there?).

like Hoglander, Dach is going through some big-time struggles in Montreal and has just one goal and seven assists in his first 24 games this season.

He is also signed long-term through 2025-26 at $3.3 million per season.

A lot of the same questions that were asked of Hoglander would also have to be asked here, only they are a little more complicated because Montreal is not going to be in the market for a rental defenseman. It is going to be looking for the same type of return the Penguins are looking for right now.

The other wild card with Dach is that injuries have absolutely ravaged his career in recent seasons, playing in just 60 games between 2022-23 and 2023-24. Before all of the injuries happened, however, I did kind of like where his game was trending after being acquired by Montreal.

In terms of age, salary and current struggles Hoglander and Dach are almost identical in those areas.

Between the two, I like Dach as a player more and think he is more likely to be the player that comes closer to maximizing his potential. But he also seems to be the one that is least likely to be traded and the one that would cost the most if he were actually available.

Ultimately, it is unlikely either ends up being Penguins. But again, if there is any sort of a chance players like that might be available it would not hurt to at least examine the possibility of them.