Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea, SP

SEAN MANAEA, SP

Position: SP
Age: 32

2024 Traditional Stats: 32 G, 181.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 12-6 W/L, 184 K, 63 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 114 ERA+, 24.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.75 xERA, 3.83 FIP, 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR

RUNDOWN

Sean Manaea was a steady, reliable presence in the New York Mets starting rotation, bouncing back in 2024 with one of the strongest seasons of his career. 

Known for his newly-conceived deceptive delivery and ability to induce weak contact, Manaea posted a 3.47 ERA across 181 2/3 innings, marking the highest workload of his career.

His success stemmed from two things. First, he began to rely on his sinking fastball, which sat in the 99th percentile of fastball run value league-wide. In 2023, Manaea threw that pitch just one percent of the time. In 2024, however, that usage number jumped to become the most-used pitch in his arsenal, at 43 percent.

Second, Manaea altered his delivery midway through the season to become a more Chris-Sale-like sidearmer, and it proved to be a big difference in how he kept hitters off balance.

His 24.9% strikeout rate in 2024 sat in the top third of the league, a testament to the effectiveness of his mechanical change. While his walk rate (8.5%) slightly ticked up from his career average, his 1.084 WHIP suggests that he effectively limited baserunners. His xERA (3.75) and FIP (3.83) confirm that, while he was assisted by a talented Mets defense, his performance was no fluke.

One of Manaea’s greatest assets is his durability. He has made at least 30 starts in each of the last three seasons. His ability to consistently provide length and eat innings makes him a valuable asset for teams needing stability in their rotation. 

Defensively, Manaea fields his position well and has shown an aptitude for limiting stolen bases, thanks to quick reactions off the mound. However, he has never been a fireballer, and, as a result, he relies more heavily on location and sequencing to stay effective, which could raise concerns about his long-term ceiling as he enters his mid-30s.

Contract

Manaea signed a two-year, $28 million deal with the Mets ahead of the 2024 season, opting out after an impressive campaign. His bounce-back performance positions him as one of the more reliable mid-rotation starters on the market. 

Given his age and durability, along with previous contracts signed by starters already this offseason, Manaea is likely to seek a three-year deal in the $20 million AAV range. MLB Trade Rumors has Manaea predicted for three-years, $60 million. 

Recommendation

For the Mets, Manaea could be a strong fit to return as a mid-rotation arm to complement their frontline starters. However, there is no expectation that Manaea would return to become the ace he was last year. Kodai Senga, or an alternate free agent signing, would ideally take over that number-one-starter role. 

However, with Manaea’s consistency and ability to provide innings, he could help stabilize a rotation that, so far, is made up of only Senga, David Peterson, and newly signed starter Frankie Montas.

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