Gains for Irish Conservatives May Be Too Little, Too Late

Rejection of incumbent parties has been a global theme in a year in which more voters than ever have cast ballots. It has been a talking point of Democrats seeking to make sense of their failures in last month’s elections. According to Harvard’s Steven Levitsky, incumbents have suffered losses in 40 of 54 Western democracies since 2020. Over 80 percent of incumbent parties have lost parliamentary seats or vote share this year.

So it was striking when Irish voters opted overwhelmingly for the status quo in last Friday’s general election. Ireland has a complex ranked-choice system with vote transfers, which establishment parties navigated to secure the lion’s share of seats in the Dáil (Parliament).

A unique feature of post-independence Ireland has been “civil war” politics, with power alternating between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the political party manifestations of the two sides in the country’s 1922-23 civil war. Now, over a century after hostilities ceased, the parties are increasingly difficult to distinguish ideologically. These reliable champions of left-wing social policies and neoliberalism each won just over 20 percent of first-preference votes.

Left-nationalist (another quirky concept endemic to the Celtic world) Sinn Féin, once the political arm of the Irish Republican Army, earned just under 20 percent. The left-wing Social Democrats and Labour rounded out the top five, followed by upstart socially conservative parties Aontú and Independent Ireland, and finally the decimated Greens.

Aontú and Independent Ireland have secured a combined six seats, up from one in 2020, in the 174-seat Dáil. Both earned enough first-preference votes to receive government funding, the lack of which has handicapped their campaign activities to date. Independent (party-unaffiliated) candidates won 16 seats, and some of these Teachtaí Dála (parliamentarians) have rebuffed a milieu where social conservatism is scorned. County Offaly’s Carol Nolan, for example, fell out with Sinn Féin over her pro-life views and persevered in government as an independent — she easily won reelection this year.

Yet, small victories might offer too little, too late in a country that has undergone thorough social engineering. Recent Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael governments (they entered a grand coalition together in 2020) have overseen abortion and gay marriage measures, pervasive transgender activism, unrestrained immigration, and hostility to conservative governments abroad. The previous government forced through a controversial “hate speech” law and backed constitutional referenda on the role of mothers and the definition of family, both of which ultimately failed.

If these two dominant parties are “center-right,” as establishment media outlets maintain, surely that designation has become meaningless. The left-wing Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour, and Greens (the latter were part of the previous government) largely maintain these measures didn’t go far enough. For the time being, Irish politics is a destructive monoculture.

The immigration issue unquestionably entails a point of no return. As of 2023, 22 percent of the Irish population was foreign-born. Ireland-born children of immigrants further swell the island’s non-Irish population. Between 2016 and 2024, the Irish state spent over €5 billion on asylum accommodation and other asylum-related expenses, an arrangement that enriches hoteliers and landlords.

Resulting pressures on the real estate and labor markets are driving young Irishmen abroad, further altering the country’s ethnic composition. Migrants often arrive without passports or other documentation, almost always via one or more safe countries; generous Irish government benefits are a draw, and there is little threat of deportation, even for criminals. Tent cities characterize parts of central Dublin, while the vaunted tourism industry has hemorrhaged hundreds of millions of euros in recent years. A criminal court judge called Dublin’s famous Temple Bar a “violent, post-apocalyptic no-go area.” (READ MORE: ‘Ireland Is Full’ Say Thousands in Dublin)

One poll this year found that 66 percent of respondents believe Ireland has accepted “too many refugees,” and 72 percent believe the country should institute “very strict limits on the number of immigrants coming to live in Ireland.” The staggering immigration figures suggest Irish society can only be preserved with both a freeze on inward migration and large-scale deportation. However, the top five parties in the new Dáil are certain to double down on their social-engineering policies.

Institutional realities ensured a modest ceiling for conservative electoral achievements last week, but the scale of establishment victory proved demoralizing. After all, the Irish people have demonstrated ample embitterment over the last year. Mass protests erupted after an Algerian migrant stabbed several schoolchildren last November. Grassroots protests at migrant relocation centers have rankled government officials who have steadfastly avoided consulting locals.

In March, the motherhood and family referenda shockingly failed despite universal institutional support. In October, a contentious “hate speech” bill passed only after its most authoritarian elements were jettisoned. Yet, no conservative or populist wave materialized. Some Irish cynically maintain only a massive external shock, like a new financial crisis, can extricate Ireland from the activism of its political class. (READ MORE: Ireland Imposes Draconian ‘Hate’ Laws)

One such shock might be brewing in Washington. President-elect Trump has vowed to incentivize American multinational corporations to return business functions to the United States and insisted he is prepared to implement tariffs to advance American interests.

Ireland, with its low corporate tax rates and high concentration of American firms, is sure to draw attention. These American multinationals employ 11 percent of the Irish workforce and facilitate Ireland’s bloated public spending. So it was a particularly unconscionable bit of political showmanship when, prior to the U.S. elections, Fine Gael Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris posted a picture of a Kamala Harris campaign hat to his Instagram account, with a caption reading, “If the cap fits…” The incoming president isn’t known for laughing off such matters.

The Irish, to their credit, preserve their sense of humor through it all. Commenting on the Social Democrats potentially replacing the Greens as the minor party in government, journalist Sarah Ryan, of the independent news outlet Gript, remarked, “Less windmills, more men in dresses.” For now, Ireland will get the latter no matter whom it elects.

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