UFC 310 predictions
If you needed another example of how bulletproof the UFC has been in 2024, UFC 310 is it.
Somehow, the promotion’s final pay-per-view of the year feels both thrown together and also like an absolute blockbuster of a card at the same time. No, we’re not getting the long-awaited first title defense of Belal Muhammad, but even with the welterweight champion out, the matchmakers had a second title fight already booked that slotted perfectly into the main event.
Alexandre Pantoja has been the man at 125 pounds, the lightest men’s division in the UFC that is far too often overlooked. All Pantoja has done is knock off ranked contender after ranked contender, showing off his flawless all-around game and earning a spot in the top-5 of our Pound-for-Pound Rankings. And now he faces a challenger in the debuting Kai Asakura that has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
The UFC even found a way to keep Muhammad’s opponent Shavkat Rakhmonov on the card, pivoting from a title fight to Ian Machado Garry, manifesting a rare battle of undefeateds that keeps the contender line in order regardless of who is victorious.
Add in former champions Ciryl Gane, Aljamain Sterling, and Chris Weidman, plus longtime contenders Movsar Evloev, Alexander Volkov, Dominick Reyes, Anthony Smith, not to mention straight-up lifers Clay Guida and Michael Chiesa, and you’ve got a recipe for a memorable close to the PPV calendar.
All that and we’re blessed by a Nate Landwehr-Doo Ho Choi main card opener (please sir, I want some more!), and the return of Kron Gracie as he fights Bryce Mitchell. We were all waiting for that one, right?
What: UFC 310
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Dec. 7. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN2 and FX at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alexandre Pantoja (1, P4P-4) vs. Kai Asakura
Call me crazy, but I’m going upset here.
I’m as much of an Alexandre Pantoja guy as anyone, to the point that I’d even give him a chance in a hypothetical Demetrious Johnson fight. That’s how high in regard I hold his skill and toughness. But styles make fights and on paper, Kai Asakura has the style to beat Pantoja and become the UFC’s first Japanese champion.
Asakura towered over Pantoja at their faceoff and that’s going to be a factor in the cage. He’s great at fighting from distance, but also likes to mix it in up close with flourishes of violent Muay Thai. His past two wins were sparked by knees to the breadbasket and it’s that body work that could be his path to victory against the steel-chinned Pantoja. If you can’t hit them high, chop them down low.
A mixing of the martial arts should favor Pantoja. “The Cannibal” has top-notch grappling in addition to a busy striking style, and he’s shown he knows how to grind out a decision if the opportunity for a finish doesn’t present itself. It’s not like Asakura is a slouch on the ground, though, he just prefers to use his grappling skills to take the action back to the feet.
Five rounds gives Asakura plenty of time to find his rhythm and I think he does, turning it up from Round 3 on and showing everyone what all the hype is about. It’s almost 2025, let’s get crazy.
Asakura by KO/TKO in the fourth.
Pick: Asakura
Shavkat Rakhmonov (T2, P4P-18) vs. Ian Machado Garry (7)
I’m not feeling quite as bold with my co-main event call.
Ian Machado Garry is a fine talent and someone who could work his way to a title fight someday, but he’s no Shavkat Rakhmonov. The Kazakh star has a finishing instinct few can match and that will come into play here. No matter how safe Garry tries to play it, Rakhmonov will close the distance and get in his face.
Rakhmonov’s willingness to take risk is both a great strength and to his detriment as he’s taken his fair share of damage in fights before inevitably turning the tables on his opponents. He’ll have to decide early whether Garry has the kind of power that can knock him flat or if he’s confident drawing Garry into a brawl. Either way, Rakhmonov has options.
Garry has often crowed about his grappling ability, so if there’s any truth to those bona fides this is his chance to back that talk up. He will get put on his butt at some point and it won’t just be a matter of battling for position, Rakhmonov will look to finish. He always looks to finish.
This full-on assault will wear Garry down until the Irishman is out of options and Rakhmonov takes him out in Round 2.
Pick: Rakhmonov
Ciryl Gane (6) vs. Alexander Volkov (3)
I’d really like to lean towards Alexander Volkov here, because I feel like his recent run of results are reflective of substantive improvements he’s made to his game. He’s 5-1 since losing to Gane and even as he inches closer to 50 pro bouts, he continues to evolve and find more effective ways to use that incredible size and reach. He’s shored up a lot of the defensive holes in his game that in the past might have led to letdowns against the likes of Sergei Pavlovich, Tai Tuivasa, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
In their first go around, Ciryl Gane’s speed and athleticism were too much for Volkov to overcome in the long run and Volkov fell short in a five-round decision. That physical disparity has been Volkov’s Achilles heel as his lone loss in his past six fights is Tom Aspinall, another plus-athlete in the heavyweight division.
And that’s why I have to pick Gane to win this rematch because I’m not confident this fight plays out too differently from the first. Three years later, Gane is still one of the most agile heavyweights on the planet and his movement can give anyone in the division headaches, including Volkov. The fight only being a three-rounder this time does add intrigue to the contest as Volkov only needs to focus on winning a couple of rounds to eke out a decision as opposed to keeping up with Gane for 25 minutes, but I’m not seeing him having enough in the arsenal to put Gane at a disadvantage.
Gane by decision again.
Pick: Gane
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
This fight is ridiculous for so many reasons, not the least of which is the, uh, unique perspectives Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie choose to share whenever they have a microphone in front of them.
Here’s how Jed Meshew put it in our UFC 310 roundtable:
Mitchell vs. Gracie is quite possibly the most important fight of the modern era. We venerate the great men of history like Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar and Marcus Aurelius because they were warrior poets, philosopher kings. And the battle between Mitchell and Gracie is perhaps the first time in history two such men will clash inside the octagon.
Sure.
Politics and conspiracies theories aside, this matchup is weird, man. Mitchell is a top-15-ish featherweight and Gracie... just isn’t? When we last saw Gracie, it was almost 600 days ago and he didn’t show much as he lost a dreadful decision to Charles Jourdain. It looked like that might have been the end of his MMA experiment and, frankly, not too many people were clamoring for him to change his mind.
But here we are with a matchup that’s actually kind of good for Gracie if the cards fall just right. Mitchell will look to grapple with him at least once and that one time might be all that Gracie needs. As effective as Mitchell can be from top control, Gracie is truly dangerous on the ground, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he snags a submission of his back or just sweeps Mitchell. On the other hand, Mitchell out-muscling Gracie and holding him down for 15 minutes wouldn’t be a shock either.
Then there’s the possibility that these two decide to do three rounds of cardio kickboxing, which would be amazing in its own way.
Screw it, I’m going with a wonky upset, because that’s what this matchup deserves. Gracie by submission.
Pick: Gracie
Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi
The definition of a proper main card opening banger. For those about to rock (and sock), we salute you.
This is normally the part where I say toss a coin and pick your winner based on that because a slugfest is all but guaranteed, but I’m actually comfortable going with Doo Ho Choi here. Nate Landwehr is fight-for-fight maybe the most exciting man on the planet, so it’s entirely possible that he draws on the power of the blood gods and flattens Choi. I just like what I’ve seen from Choi since he’s come back.
“The Korean Superboy” is a man now, having grown into a body that suits his prodigious talents. I genuinely think he’s a sleeper contender at featherweight even if he’s well past 30 now and his maturity, both physical and mental, gives him the edge on Saturday. Landwehr likes to hit and get hit and it’s the latter part that could get him into trouble.
Sure, Landwehr has a knack for comebacks, but if Choi hurts him, don’t expect him to let Landwehr off the hook. When the big hit comes, Choi will quickly follow up for the finish, one that will likely earn the UFC Hall of Fame Fight Wing member a Performance of the Night award.
Pick: Choi
Preliminaries
Dominick Reyes def. Anthony Smith
Themba Gorimbo def. Vicente Luque
Movsar Evloev (4) def. Aljamain Sterling (11)
Randy Brown def. Bryan Battle
Eryk Anders def. Chris Weidman
Joshua Van def. Cody Durden
Michael Chiesa def. Max Griffin
Clay Guida def. Chase Hooper