How the U.S. Can Maintain Its Military Edge Over China

The U.S. is blessed with the world’s most capable military and a network of allies and partners unmatched by any nation. It is an advantage we accumulated over generations. Yet we are taking it for granted as a growing coalition that includes Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea increasingly challenge our military might and our role in the world.

From spy balloons over South Carolina to spy bases in Cuba, China in particular is demonstrating its growing ability to hold the U.S. homeland at risk.

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In the face of such threats, some in Congress seem content to settle for budget caps that arbitrarily set the level of defense spending without regard for what is needed. But continuing to let the budget dictate our strategy instead of using strategy to drive our budget will only embolden our adversaries and put our homeland at risk.

The “moat” theory of national security holds that the U.S. is well protected by large oceans to its east and west and weak neighbors to its north and south. For centuries this may have been true, but oceans are no longer a match for modern technology. Cyber threats have unlimited range, adversary satellites encircle us day and night, and drones are fundamentally changing how war is conducted. While the Chinese balloons violating our airspace in 2023 grabbed headlines, even more concerning are the mysterious drones recently flying over sensitive military and industrial sites in Virginia. These drones, with wingspans of up to 20 ft., have a relatively short range, meaning they were launched by foreign operatives or military forces in our backyard. Over 600 incidents like this have been reported since 2022.

Though China has been labelled a “pacing challenge” by the Pentagon, it is more accurately a peer military competitor. Beijing’s total defense spending is now estimated to be on par with that of the U.S., according to the Pentagon’s own estimates as well as America’s intelligence community.

The net result is China now fields the world’s largest navy, coast guard, army, and submarine-based strategic missile forces. China’s air force is now the “largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific,” and the CCP boasts more combat aircraft than the U.S. Air Force. China’s “mind-boggling” space capabilities are of a growing concern for the U.S. Space Force, which is struggling to keep pace with commercial space capabilities under current budget constraints. Recent reports also indicate that within a decade China will have as many or more nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles as the U.S. and Russia.

Amid this massive buildup of conventional combat power in Asia, the U.S. military is shrinking in both size and strength. Following years of budgetary uncertainty and arbitrary spending caps, weapons procurements and advanced military capabilities have been the billpayers for penny-pinchers in Congress and the White House. This has left the U.S. with the smallest Army since World War II, a Navy half the size it was in the Cold War, and a fleet of Air Force aircraft that is near the oldest and smallest it has ever been.

While Washington imposes arbitrary budget caps that fail to provide the military with growth above inflation to confront these growing global challenges, China has consistently invested real growth into its military year-after-year. Moreover, China has sought to “weaponize trade” in the Indo-Pacific region to advance its military and political objectives. The economic consequences for the U.S. of ceding the Indo-Pacific to China are too severe to even contemplate given the complex web of supply chain dependencies we have throughout the region.

A strong U.S. military is the best guarantee for peace and prosperity in a dangerous world—a bulwark against nations that threaten the “rules-based” international order. A failure to project strength abroad and adequately support allies will send a signal of weakness to Beijing that could trigger a decision to invade Taiwan within the next four years. The best way to win a war like this is to prevent it—we should never let China doubt our strength or resolve in the first place.

And while the U.S. still fields the world’s most advanced and powerful military, we are spread thinly across the globe. China’s overwhelming focus on the Indo-Pacific means that it does not have to match the overall size and capabilities of the U.S. military to pose a threat to American interests and global peace and stability.

The national security consensus that has largely endured since the end of World War II is premised on keeping our adversaries at bay so that the horrors of war do not land our on our doorstep. If in this critical moment we fail to maintain our military advantage, we make it more likely that conflict will rage around the world and eventually draw us in, both economically and militarily.

Now is not a time for weakness and second guessing.