What's at stake for the College Football Playoff in the Big 12 championship game?

In the conference’s first season without historic powers Texas and Oklahoma, we’re getting quite the unlikely Big 12 championship game matchup as No. 15 Arizona State takes on No. 16 Iowa State with a College Football Playoff spot on the line.

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The Sun Devils, led by Big 12 Coach of the Year Kenny Dillingham, came out of nowhere to finish 10-2 and earn a berth in the conference title game, despite being picked by the media to finish dead-last in the league entering the season.

Iowa State, meanwhile, got off to a 7-0 start before dropping back-to-back games to Texas and Kansas. However, the Cyclones got back on track, and thanks to a win over Kansas State and some outside help, they’re playing for a conference title and even more.

The stakes in this one are pretty simple: The winner is in the 12-team field, and the loser is out. As things currently stand, whoever wins this game will miss out on a first-round bye guaranteed to the four highest-ranked conference champs and earn the No. 12 seed — though that is potentially subject to change.

This may be the most impactful game this weekend when it comes to the bracket, and it’s also the most straightforward when it comes to understanding its CFP implications.

The loser of this game has essentially no shot at earning an at-large bid, so it’s a de facto CFP play-in game. It’s possible the game has no impact on seeding at all, with the winner simply sliding into the No. 12 spot regardless of who it is.

However, that’s not a guarantee.

Had UNLV beaten Boise State in Friday night’s Mountain West championship game, the winner of the Big 12 matchup could have taken the Broncos’ spot as the No. 4 seed and earned a first-round bye, depending on the other conference title games.

However, with Boise’s win, the odds of the Big 12 champion earning the No. 4 seed diminished significantly. It’s not entirely unthinkable that the winner of this one could jump a Broncos team that has struggled a bit down the stretch in the rankings, and Arizona State would likely have a better chance than Iowa State given its hot finish to the season.

But in all likelihood, this game boils down to a play-in spot for the No. 12 seed. Win and in, as they say.