Bryan Rust is not slowing down

Bryan Rust has not just been a bright spot for the Pittsburgh Penguins, he has been a legitimately good top-line scorer.

When the Pittsburgh Penguins re-signed Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell in the summer of 2022, Rust’s contract was the one I probably had the least amount of confidence in from both a short-term and long-term outlook.

(I felt the same way about Rakell; I just had no expectation they would actually re-sign him.)

It was not a case of not liking him.

It was not a case of thinking he was not and is not good.

It was simply a matter of long-term value and whether or not it was the best investment. Signing non-star players to long-term contracts in their 30s is sometimes the type of investment that can backfire on a team and become a long-term regret.

Malkin and Letang might have been older, but they were also better players and starting from a significantly higher point. My mindset was that even if they declined, their decline would not look the same as Rust’s potential decline and would still provide better value.

If Rust had played for another team, I would have simply looked at him as the type of free agent that was waiting to get overpaid on the open market.

But here we are a couple of years later and Rust is making me eat my words, because he is still outstanding and one of the Penguins’ best and most productive players. He has been a constant bright spot this season, and has really stepped up his production following the trade of Jake Guentzel at last year’s trade deadline.

It also helped that he probably signed for below his market value and what he could have gotten had he left in free agency.

First, the numbers since the Guentzel trade last year when he pretty much assumed full-time, top-line duty next to Sidney Crosby are sensational.

He is scoring at a 40-goal pace, averaging nearly a point-per-game and has been scoring at career-best levels.

This season alone he has been even better.

After his hat trick in Thursday’s 9-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens, his 12 goals are just one off of the team lead (behind only Rakell), and he has done that in seven fewer games. He is scoring at a 40-goal pace per 82 games, is tied for the team lead with three game-winning goals and is tied for the team-lead with 10 even-strength goals.

Yeah, there has been a small jump in his shooting percentage, but there is not much to suggest this production is not sustainable throughout the season. Mainly since his individual rate stats are not only right in line with what he has done throughout his career, some of them are among the best he has ever performed in the NHL.

His 1.33 individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play are the most he has ever averaged in the NHL. His second-and third-highest totals? They happened over each of the past two seasons.

His 14.8 shot attempts per 60 minutes are the third-highest total of his career, as are his 9.48 shots on goal per 60 minutes.

Basically, he is generating shots and scoring chances at a more frequent rate than he ever has in his career and he keeps getting better.

Again, this is not a random one-year spike. He has been just as efficient the past two years after signing his contract extension.

He is not just still a good player. He is getting better.

Getting a consistent opportunity to play alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin has certainly helped him, but I am going to say the same thing here that I always said about Guentzel — just simply playing alongside Crosby (or Malkin) does not guarantee you a 30-or 40-goal season. There have been a lot of players, and a lot of talented players, that have been put in those spots over the years that were never able to perform or score at this level.

You still have to put the puck in the net and take advantage of that opportunity. There is a lot to be said for having that ability.

Guentzel had it. Rust has it. It remains to be seen if he will have it for another three full seasons after this as he gets further into his mid-30s, but there is little to suggest he is going to lose it anytime soon. He has not only been a bright spot these past couple of seasons, he has been a legitimately good top-line scorer.