What Should the Guardians Do Next?

After the Gimenez-Ortiz trade, what might be on the agenda?

With the Guardians having addressed their biggest offseason need for another starting pitcher, what should they do next?

1. Find a veteran starting pitcher to increase rotation depth and production.

Analysis: Right now, the Guardians rotation seems set to be Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Ben Lively and Triston McKenzie, with Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy next up in Columbus while they await a hopeful Bieber return in June or July. I feel much better about this plan with Ortiz's potential to excel in Cleveland’s system but there is certainly room to add a veteran starting pitcher to raise the floor of the rotation and guard against inevitable injuries.

There are still many, many options in this category in free agency. On my list are Jeff Hoffman (probably only good for 100 innings but with an FIP likely slightly under 4), Kyle Gibson (projected for 166 innings and a 4.30 FIP), Jose Quintana (projected for 166 innings and a 4.41.FIP), Kyle Hart (139 innings and put up a 3.28 FIP in the KBO last year), Griffin Canning (125 innings and a 4.62 FIP), Alex Wood (111 innings and a 4.64 FIP), and Mike Soroka (116 innings and a 4.52 FIP). Of course, I’m also all on board for them entering the Michael Lorenzen, Walker Buehler, Andrew Heaney or Trevor Williams side of the market, or even better the Nick Pivetta sweepstakes (or the Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo trade talks), but I think it’s far more likely they try to land someone on a cheap, one-year deal or even on a non-roster invite set-up.

I do think it is absolutely imperative to get at least one more veteran arm capable of giving them innings and insurance against a rash of Spring Training pitching injuries. My preference would be to land Buehler or Pivetta, but Gibson or Quintana would be a fine consolation prize and have me feeling much more confident in the rotation’s ability to hold up for the season. I don’t expect the latter kind of deal to happen until late January or even early February.

Game-changing scenario here would be it the Guardians can somehow convince Roki Sasaki to sign here. There is no way to know how possible that is, but if it happens, this offseason grade goes to an A+++++++ and would even make me forgive them for the incredibly stupid Guards Fest decision.

If the Guardians do add a major league rotation option, I think it opens up the chance for Lively or McKenzie, who don’t have minor-league options, to be traded in a small deal. I think they’d have plenty of suitors willing to offer a mildly interesting prospect or two in return. If not, one of the two gets the #5 starter spot and the other is the longman out of the pen, moving Pedro Avila into a little higher leverage spots. Basically, the reason starting pitching is #1 on my list because when you think you have enough pitching, that’s the time to get more pitching.

2. Find an upgrade for right field.

Analysis: I have hopes that the team will promote Chase DeLauter to fill this role by late April or early May if they cannot find an external addition. I like the idea of giving Jhonkensy Noel continued chances to succeed here, especially against left-handed pitching. I also can see Angel Martinez in center and Lane Thomas in right as a reasonable solution with a July trade deadline upgrade fallback plan as a reasonable approach should the injury bug bite DeLauter again. However, I am over the Will Brennan experience and would be glad to find some proven value in a right-fielder.

There aren’t a lot of clear upgrades in free agency here. Maybe you like the idea of a one-year deal for Jesse Winker, Max Kepler or, more expensive, Joc Pederson (who seems to be a DH-only now). Maybe you think the Guardians can get in play for Jurickson Profar (the only clear upgrade out there, in my opinion). I just don’t see the Guardians signing the 31 year-old Profar to the 3-year deal he will likely command.

The possibilities in the trade market aren’t especially clear. Maybe Taylor Ward from the Angels gets moved. Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs reportedly doesn’t want to DH, so maybe he’d waive his no trade clause to come here and maybe Cleveland would pick up the $38M he is owed from 2025-2026. He certainly would fit well in the 2-hole with the 138 wRC+ he put up last year. And perhaps the Guardians still have hopes for DeLauter to stick in center field... or maybe injuries push DeLauter to 1B/DH.

In the end, I think it is most likely the Guardians go with internal options, beginning with Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel and ending with DeLauter and Noel in May, and I am fine with that... as long as they are aggressive in promoting DeLauter (or George Valera if he ever gets healthy). Just seems clear that finding a proven right-fielder capable of providing 120 wRC+ or so from the position would go a long way toward lengthening the lineup... as we’ve said every offseason since Michael Brantley left.

3. Find a short-term upgrade for second-base to bridge to Travis Bazzana.

Analysis: For whatever it is worth, the narrative the Guardians are pushing to explain the Gimenez trade is that their system strength is middle-infielders.

So, that would seem to imply that they plan to sort through a variety of internal options at second base.

With that said, while I am as big of a fan of Juan Brito’s bat as anyone, and accordingly I also like Angel Martinez’s bat as a Brito-lite profile, I’m not sure either player is a second-baseman (Antonetti notably didn't mention Martinez as an option at second base in yesterday's presser). Brito is projected for a 97 wRC+ and Martinez for a 94 wRC+, but it’s the defensive downgrade each would be to Gimenez that has me concerned. I suspect Tyler Freeman, the best and most consistent defender at second base of the bunch, would currently get first shot with Brito scheduled for a May debut if Freeman struggles, and I’m sure Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneemann will get looks in spring training, also (I am not a believer in either as a starting second baseman).

I would love for the Guardians to target a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Nico Hoerner. In 2,869 innings at second base, Hoerner has 26 Defensive Runs Saved and 37 Outs Above Average. For comparison, Gimenez has 3,973 innings at second base and 58 DRS and 50 OAA. As you can see, the drop-off defensively would not be severe and Hoerner is a career 102 wRC+ hitter, likely a slight upgrade from Gimenez. Hoerner is due $11.5 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026. The Cubs are looking to move money around to use for other moves, have Matt Shaw as a top 100 prospect ready to play second base, and could use significant help in the bullpen. If the Guardians take on Hoerner’s deal, I think a deal built around Hunter Gaddis, Andrew Walters or Franco Aleman (whichever elite arm the Cubs prefer) and perhaps a young bat they like (maybe even Freeman or Martinez) would get the deal done.

Of course, I’d also be very interested in Brandon Lowe should the Rays be looking to move the second baseman’s $10.5M contract for this year and $11.5M club option for 2024. Lowe is an average defender at best and not likely to give you more than 100 games, but it’ll be with a 120 wRC+ and would allow you to get Brito or Martinez some at-bats there, especially against LHP. Of course, I think it likely would take Brito and a decent pitching prospect to get him. Lowe has also had some experience in right field, so perhaps it’s possible for him to help there as well.

In free agency, right-handed hitter Brandon Drury and switch-hitter Jorge Polanco are interesting bounceback candidates as hitters projected to be around league average at the plate with upside for more. Drury is an average defender at second base at best who has dealt with a lot of injuries, and Polanco, by OAA, has been almost unplayable at second. Either would be of interest to me as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training but I wouldn’t want to guarantee money to either.

I would love to see the Guardians find a way to land Hoerner. They likely gain around 1 win in projections over their current options with either Hoerner or Lowe and get a player in either case who will not block Travis Bazzana. Hoerner is also more than capable of playing shortstop should Brayan Rocchio falter there (an important safeguard in my mind). But, as noted above, I expect the Guardians to look internally and I would pencil Tyler Freeman in as your starting second baseman for Opening Day as things stand currently.

4. Do not trade Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas.

Analysis: It just doesn't make sense to me for the Guardians to trade a player who can play in center field or a player who can hit in the middle of this lineup. It would immediately cause another hole they would have to fill. Ride it out with Thomas and Naylz for 2025.

5. Pursue a sensible extension with Steven Kwan, Tanner Bibee, Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo or Cade Smith if one presents itself.

Analysis: I am not desperate for any extension this offseason. If Kwan wants the team to buy out his arbitration years and tack on a year or two with a "I have a bad hamstring" discount, sure. Buying out Smith's arbitration years and getting another year or two would be cool. Mostly, I'd like them to be aggressive with guys like Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter, buying out their arb years and getting a couple of their free agency years. This approach, specifically for Manzardo and DeLauter, would be a philosophical change for the Cleveland front office, but I think it's a better risk than extending players into their mid-30's if the budget here is going to continue to be so tight.

Summary: The Guardians are in a decent spot to enter the year with the roster as is and look to make needed upgrades at the trade deadline. However, there are reasonable upgrades that could be made now and I have some reasonable optimism that something might happen. A Walker Buehler signing would make this a vood offseason from my view, and he and Pivetta top my Guardians’ Christmas wishlist... but I don’t expect that kind of "bare minimum for an ALCS finalist" outcome at the moment. Kepler on a cheap one year deal and Canning and/or Wood on NRI’s is more the Guardian way. I’m also cautiously ok with things as they are as long as the team plans to be aggressive in prospect promotions and trades in July as needed. Stay tuned!