Fed faces important choice post this cut

Markets are pricing in a more than 90% probability of a 0.25-percentage-point cut in the Fed funds rate this week. Officials are likely to pencil in higher "dot plots" for rates, notwithstanding the dispersion in forecasts among them, together with a move up in the terminal rate closer to what the market expects. Finally, while Chair Jerome Powell will not close off his options for January completely, he is expected to signal at his press conference that the central bank will stand pat when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month.