Connolly won the Oversight nod. But AOC’s allies insist she’s not out.

Rep. Gerry Connolly is poised to become the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee next year. But the decision isn’t final until Tuesday, when the entire caucus is set to vote on their picks for the top Democrat in the prominent role.

The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee voted to recommend the Virginian as the ranking member on the high-profile panel by a 34-27 vote on Monday. The veteran investigator faced a stiff challenge from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The full caucus is set to vote on who will officially lead Democrats on the panel on Tuesday.

Those votes typically align with the steering panel’s recommendations, but two Democratic allies of Ocasio-Cortez, granted anonymity to speak candidly, predicted the full caucus, composed of younger members who might be more likely to favor the 35-year old liberal compared to the Steering panel, could sway in favor of the progressive New Yorker. Others insisted the result would remain unchanged and Connolly would win the top spot.

“Steering is a microcosm of the larger caucus, I have seen races where people have the nod from steering but lose it in the broader caucus. So I don't know,” said Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), a Connolly ally. “I mean, I think it bodes well, because I think he's obviously got the experience and the talent but you know, who knows.”

“Steering and Policy typically carries the day, but these are nuanced situations,” echoed Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.).

While the vote was a secret ballot and happened behind closed doors, members said Connolly attracted staunch support from centrist Democrats after spending the last several weeks campaigning with key members. He moved to lock down critical bases of support like the centrist New Democrat Coalition and boasted backing from senior members of the caucus like Reps. Greg Meeks of New York and Sánchez.

Before the vote, when Ocasio-Cortez was making her pitch to the Steering panel, she was questioned about her past positions when she boosted primary challengers to sitting House members. She signaled to lawmakers that she might no longer back Democratic challengers to her colleagues, according to three people familiar with the situation, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. Ocasio-Cortez came to Congress by successfully primarying a Democratic leader and has also backed challenges to other sitting lawmakers since then.

Current Oversight ranking member Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) set off the contested race after he launched a bid to become the top Judiciary Committee Democrat. Democrats are looking to use the Oversight Committee as a foil to President-elect Donald Trump’s administration in the next Congress.

Connolly had unsuccessfully run for the panel’s top job last Congress, losing to Raskin in both the steering and caucus elections. Since then, he worked to round up support from key corners of the Democratic Caucus and had a powerful ally in his corner: former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

She’d phoned other members of Congress on behalf of her longtime ally leading up the steering vote. One of them, Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) won the steering panel’s recommendation for the Natural Resources Committee, but another Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) did not win the nod for Agriculture.