LPA now Tropical Depression Querubin; shear line also bringing rain

MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) off Mindanao developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Tuesday, December 17.

It was given the local name Querubin, as the Philippines’ 17th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the first tropical cyclone for December.

As of 4 pm on Tuesday, Querubin was located 215 kilometers east southeast of Davao City or 245 kilometers east of General Santos City, slowly moving south southwest.

The tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

In a bulletin issued at 5 pm on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) placed Davao Oriental under Signal No. 1. This means the province has lead time of 36 hours to prepare for strong winds.

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal expected is just Signal No. 1.

But PAGASA warned the public that Querubin is bringing rain to the Davao Region, Caraga, and Eastern Visayas, while its trough or extension is affecting the rest of Mindanao and the rest of the Visayas.

Tuesday afternoon, December 17, to Wednesday afternoon, December 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Occidental

Wednesday afternoon, December 18, to Thursday afternoon, December 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental

Thursday afternoon, December 19, to Friday afternoon, December 20

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental

Floods and landslides are likely.

Querubin’s initial forecast track shows it could slowly move east northeast, away from the Davao Region, in the next 12 hours. Then it may turn north or upward on Wednesday, December 18.

Afterwards, Querubin could weaken back into a remnant low or LPA by Wednesday, then cross Mindanao and Palawan from Wednesday afternoon to Sunday afternoon, December 22.

PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of Querubin re-intensifying into a tropical depression after it crosses Mindanao or Palawan.

Aside from Querubin, PAGASA is monitoring the shear line, which refers to the point where cold air from the northeast monsoon or amihan converges with the easterlies or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean.

The shear line is affecting parts of Southern Luzon in the next three days, particularly these areas:

Tuesday afternoon, December 17, to Friday afternoon, December 20

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Masbate

Floods and landslides are possible as well. – Rappler.com