Trump’s popularity is rising – what will the resistance do?

Dec. 6 was a historic day. It was the first time since July 2015 – since Donald Trump entered presidential politics – that more Americans have said they have a favorable impression of Trump than an unfavorable one. All that time, from Trump’s first Republican primary campaign to the 2016 general election to his years as president to his defeat in 2020 to his post-presidential years to his comeback in 2024 – in all that time, Trump has been underwater in the RealClearPolitics average of polls measuring favorability and unfavorability. Now, for the first time, he’s above the water, in positive poll territory.

In the latest RCP average, 49.4% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Trump, versus 47.4% who had an unfavorable impression. Compare that to, say, July, when Trump’s unfavorable rating was 54.5% and his favorable rating was 42.2%. That’s 12 points underwater. Even on Election Day, Trump’s unfavorable rating was 51.9 versus 44.9 favorable – 7 points underwater.

Now he’s up. In addition to the ratings on favorability, polls have shown majorities believing Trump will do a good job as president and majorities approving of the way he is handling the transition.

Trump knows something is going on. One of the most striking things he said at his news conference in Florida on Monday was, “In this term, everybody wants to be my friend. I don’t know. My personality changed or something.”

That was a joke. Any observer of Trump knows his personality is not going to change. Over the years, some supporters have wished Trump could change this or that aspect of his personality. They were disappointed. It’s not going to happen.

So why is Trump more popular now? One obvious reason is that Joe Biden has been a terrible president, bringing the nation inflation, a massive border incursion and chaos abroad. For millions of voters, Trump looks better in comparison – and he is, in fact, better in comparison.

But there’s something else going on, too. Trump hinted at it Monday when he said, “The biggest difference is that people want to get along with me this time.”

He’s right. Look around. Compare these days to the frantic days of 2016-2017, when Trump was preparing to take office the first time. And then to the early days of Trump’s first term, when he was under hysterical, 24/7 attack in the media. That national discussion was almost entirely about Trump, and it was almost entirely negative.

Now, the hysterical 24/7 attacks aren’t happening. There are reasons for that, the biggest being that the 2024 campaign showed Democrats that, entirely apart from Trump, they have serious problems they must fix if they are to be competitive in presidential politics.

But some in the anti-Trump resistance are also frustrated and exhausted. For years, they threw everything they had at Trump. They investigated him. They falsely accused him. They investigated him some more. They attacked him. They impeached him. They impeached him again. They indicted him. They indicted him three more times.

The constant attacks had two effects. First, whatever attack was happening at any given time dominated news coverage, meaning the news about Trump was almost always negative. And second, since Trump believes he has to respond in kind to every attack, he spent an inordinate amount of time fighting back. That meant voters saw the president spending at least as much time fighting as governing.

For the anti-Trump forces, it was an effective strategy. But the dynamic changed when Trump left office and Biden came in. Trump was no longer the singular focus of media attention. And Biden was not up to the job of president. Trump began to look better in retrospect – and in prospect. The situation worsened for Democrats when they could no longer pretend that Biden was mentally and physically capable of serving four more years, and his replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, was an ineffective candidate.

Now, with Trump’s election victory, the dynamic has changed again. For many Americans, and for some world leaders, too, Trump appears already to be president. He is moving forward on a wide range of fronts. He has plans and he has the energy to pursue them. Even with some iffy nominations, voters have a generally positive view of what he is doing as president-elect.

Meanwhile, some of Trump’s attackers have gone (relatively) silent. Their silence – at the moment, the resistance is confined to routine opposition to Trump on Capitol Hill – is allowing Trump to govern.

At some point soon, the anti-Trump world will realize this is a dangerous situation for them. The key to resistance in Trump’s first term was preventing Trump from governing. Now, a decrease in attacks has allowed the public to see Trump preparing to govern in a second term, and so far, voters are positive and hopeful about it. Which means we should expect the old-style attacks to fire up pretty soon. This time, though, Trump is better prepared for what is coming – so the battle might play out in an entirely different way.