How did one of the East Bay’s most dangerous highways see fatal crash numbers fall dramatically in 2024?

The change seems mind-boggling even to the California Highway Patrol. How exactly did one of the most dangerous highways in the East Bay — and certainly No. 1 in Contra Costa County — show such a startling reduction in fatal crashes in 2024?

“The short answer is that we really don’t know, to be honest,” said Officer Dan Gilmore, the spokesperson for the CHP’s Contra Costa County office. “It would be a bit of speculation to pin a specific reason or reasons. We’ve continued to do the same thing we’ve done to keep it safe. Sometimes things change just because they change. Sometimes, you get lucky.”

Whatever the reason, the experience of driving on state Highway 4 — a stretch of highway that runs from Interstate 80 near Hercules in western Contra Costa County to the San Joaquin County by way of Brentwood and Discovery Bay — was not nearly the same potentially dangerous experience it has been in previous years.

Through Dec. 17, six people had died in five fatal collisions on the highway in 2024. That’s only one-third of the deaths seen on the highway in 2023, when 18 people died in 15 fatal incidents. By comparison, in Contra Costa County, there also were four fatal wrecks this year on Interstate 680, three on Highway 242 and two each on I-80 and Highway 24. None of those wrecks killed more than one person.

Go back even further, and the change on Highway 4 is even more striking. From 2021-23, the CHP investigated 43 fatal crashes on the highway that resulted in 52 deaths. That’s 65% lower in both categories from the annual average in the three previous years compared in the three-year period to 2024.

“It’s a pleasant surprise,” Gilmore said. “What I would hesitate to say is that it was because we did this or we did that.”

Not that the CHP has done nothing. Gilmore said data has helped the agency identify the “hot spots” on the highway and the CHP tries to send extra patrol cars to those areas routinely. Also, some construction projects on the highway that took place over the past couple of years to make areas the highway safer have been completed.

Also at play are educational programs for young drivers that the agency has made available, such as the Start Smart program that is aimed at drivers ages 15-19.

Gilmore also said that some of the attention in previous years about the dangers of the highway may have taken hold.

“I would like to believe that there’s been a shift in the public understanding as to their responsibility as the drivers themselves,” he said. “I’d like to think that’s happening.”

The truth is, as Gilmore acknowledged, that officials may never really know.

“We just hope it continues into next year,” he said. “Let’s thank the public for practicing what we preach, and let’s keep urging the drivers to drive the way they can. It’s a joint effort from everyone.”