Outlook 2025: Europe – Europe's top 10 groups are outpacing wider European market, led by LCCs

Europe's airlines can look back on 2024 as the year when they finally completed the capacity recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Seat capacity is scheduled to be 100.0% of 2019 levels for 2024 as a whole, according to data from OAG and CAPA - Centre for Aviation.

LCCs are leading the way, and this seems likely to continue in 2025.

In 1Q2025 Europe's capacity is scheduled to be at 101.5%, confirming the recovery but with little further increase.

Aviation supply chain constraints and the ongoing (but slow) process of European airline consolidation are likely to contain capacity growth, and this may help to support yields in 2025.

The year 2025 will bring challenges in aircraft supply, recruitment, airspace capacity and the green transition - nevertheless, Europe's airlines are now beyond the COVID-19 recovery phase.