I fancy Fergal O’Brien’s 10-1 shot to make it a very Merry Christmas at Ascot
A STRONG Leader will have focus and be fearless, be able to overcome adversity and have a clear strategic direction.
Let’s just hope Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader realises that, as he has to do something he has never done before to land today’s Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle.
The Ascot feature – won by some absolute belters in the past in the shape of Paisley Park, Big Buck’s and Baracouda – is competitive with a decent sized field, no doubt bolstered by the fact that there is no standout staying hurdler in the UK right now.
Strong Leader is certainly one of the best, but can he cope going right-handed? The seven-year-old has only gone that way in one of his thirteen outings, and that was at this track when beaten over shorter in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle.
His pedigree doesn’t inspire confidence either.Strong Leader is a son of Passing Glance, who on his only run at Ascot finished 24th in the 2002 Britannia Handicap.
The sire of his dam, Westerner, also only ventured to the Berkshire track on one occasion, getting stuffed albeit chasing home Papineau in the 2004 Ascot Gold Cup.
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Murphy is quietly confident it’s not an issue. The up-and-coming handler told me: “He used to go a little bit left-handed, so we kept him that way, but the only time we went right-handed I’d say the trip was too short and making the running got him beat more than the direction.
“Fingers crossed we won’t be using that as an excuse.”
Fair enough, although it’s a lovely one to have up your sleeve! Strong Leader returned this season with a battling success in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury where his jumping was reasonable without taking your breath away. This is no gimme.
Some familiar names take him on, including last year’s winner Crambo, whose form tailed off at the end of last season but who would have a great each-way chance on what he showed here this time last year.
Blueking d’Oroux won’t be at the top of everyone’s list, but he was the horse who beat Strong Leader here in 2023. He’s got stamina to prove.
And then there is The Wallpark, who bids for a five-timer for Gordon Elliott. He’s gone from a mark of 129 to 152 in those successes and of course the big question is can he pull out even more? His Cheltenham success last time off 145 suggests it’s not impossible.
It’s a tough race to call. But it’s Crambo for at least a place for me.
Elsewhere on the Ascot card, which has four races shown live on ITV Racing, most eyes will be on Victtorino in the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase.
Matt Chapman's ITV Racing tips
ASCOT
1.50 Jungle Boogie
2.25 Crambo (each-way)
3.00 Victtorino
3.35 Go Dante (each-way)
HAYDOCK
2.05 Famous Bridge
2.40 Lune De La Mer
If victorious, he will be another big Saturday TV winner for Venetia Williams, following on from Gemirande, Djelo and Royale Pagaille. And that’s not to mention Frero Banbou who hacked up in the Rehearsal Chase.
The mount of Charlie Deutsch, Victtorino was a real eye-catcher at Newbury on his return in the race once known as the Hennessy, having jumped badly but then stayed on when the race was all but over.
There is a suspicion he’s much better going right-handed and he’s only 1lb higher in the handicap than when claiming this contest last year.
I’m taking a chance that Murphy has a decent winner at Ascot even if it’s not Strong Leader.
For many the big betting race of the day is the closing Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle featuring Greatwood runner-up and third Be Aware and Dysart Enos.
They are both improvers who could easily be up to this task. The latter is likely to be dropped out more than compared to his Cheltenham effort where he pulled too hard.
Murphy saddles Imperial Cup winner Go Dante, who also ran in the Greatwood and flopped for me in ninth. However, there are reasons to believe he can do better here, and they are almost the opposite to Strong Leader.
Go Dante is suited to right-handed courses, as his success at Sandown showed, and he has dropped 2lb for his Cheltenham effort. I’d hope for more here as an each-way bet off just 3lb higher than when scoring at the Esher venue.
Have a terrific Saturday everyone and a very Merry Christmas. The good news Boxing Day is nearly here, and we’ll be going King George crazy in this paper. Partly, of course, because we have very strong leaders!
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