Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig About the Toronto Raptors
Things were starting to look on the up and up for a hot second.
Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett were clicking.
The starters were, finally, about to reunite.
The bench, perhaps, was rounding into form too.
Other than a throttling by the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Raptors were starting to look like a legitimate team. Dare I say, the Play-In faintly appeared on the horizon? Ahh to dream.
Then, one roll of an ankle over top a Karl-Anthony Towns foot and all that dreaming went kaput.
Wait.
Miraculous recovery. Never mind. Jakob Pöltl, groin strain; RJ Barrett, sick.
Tank talk all the louder as injuries and bad losses to worse teams, ahem, Brooklyn, mount.
Not a problem. We’re here for the fun of it. Riding this puppy blindfolded on a rollercoaster.
Longer analyses this week. We’re only doing Four Things.
Let’s roll.
1. No More “Old” Guys(?)
The vision for this team is crystal clear.
Develop the next Raptors generation. Quickly.
To keep things sane along the way, and, likely, having learned from other disastrous tank jobs – Detroit, Charlotte, and Washington – the executive team maintained a reliable complement of veterans. Tanking, after all, can be done tastefully.
It’s worked, for the most part.
Jakob Pöltl undergirds a potent offence and staves off defensive collapse. A core four of Pöltl, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Ochai Agbaji, in 332 possessions, place in the 87th percentile for point differential. (Fun Fact: of lineups that have played at least four games and average, at least, 15 minutes together, Pöltl, Ja’Kobe Walter, Barnes, Barrett, and Agbaji have the second best plus/minus in the league.
The same, however, cannot be said for the remainder of the veteran core. Kelly Olynyk, Bruce Brown Jr., Chris Boucher, and, to some extent, Davion Mitchell are becoming more of a burden to this team’s development than a boon.
Mitchell has been the best of the four. He embodies Hell’s defensive deviance. Every possession up-and-down the floor, opposing guards repent. Mitchell’s survived offensively. Working well in the pick and roll with Pöltl, finding spots to attack the rim, and settling in as a decent catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter (41% on two attempts a game in his last 15 games).
He’s still good for at least one, if not several, turnovers a game (15th percentile in turnover percentage), though, and is of no help when bench-unit offences stagnate (as a starter, Mitchell has a +2 net rating, on the bench it drops to -1.5).
Boucher is Boucher. Temperamental. Checked-in and, somehow, checked-out all at once. He busts his ass, is a bit entitled, shoots too much, defends once-in-a-while, rebounds like a Devil hunting souls, and is, effectively, a zero on offence. Barring more injuries, his DNPs will add up.
Olynyk is just returning from injury. Thus far, re-entry is rocky. There are few he holds off defensively. He’s not shot well, is moving slowly, and has yet to arise as the idealized hand-off-shot-making hub for guys like Gradey Dick, Barrett, Barnes, and Walter to orbit. Instead, Olynyk’s dragged a lumbering bench unit further into the depths (-11.8 net rating in 14.3 minutes per game).
Brown Jr. is soon to debut; reintegration will, likely, be slow too being shelved for so long. His playing time is more of a necessity – in a global sense. He’ll need to demonstrate his value – for Toronto’s sake and his – prior to the trade deadline.
“…there is plenty of time for Brown to find his game before the trade deadline. Still, it’s unlikely that he’ll generate a huge return, both given his lack of court time in the past 10 months and the fact he’s earning $23.5 million this season.”
Michael Grange, Sportsnet
Regardless, it’s time they all slide further down the rotation. The sudden, swift rise of Walter, Jamal Shead, Jamison Battle, and Jonathan Mogbo calls for a succession plan earlier than anticipated.
Walter (more on him later) leads the team in on/off point differential (+7.4 per 100 possessions in only 265 minutes). Each game, Shead looks more comfortable as the second unit lead guard. (He outplayed Mitchell altogether Monday night against Chicago). Battle creates chasms of space with his shooting and cutting, and sticks his nose in the mix.
Mogbo remains less reliable, more raw. There are games where he, literally, has his hands on everything, and, games where he’s a statistical ghost. Smallball forwards limited in self-creation and shooting are harder to fit. But his deficiencies are more glaring in the starting lineup where he and Pöltl crowd one-another and competition is less forgiving.
Off the bench, the Raptors can get away with Mogbo roaming as an undersized big. He, alongside Barnes, or, only sometimes, Olynyk, can collectively replace a traditional big – big Bruno Fernando a break in case of emergencies. The playmaking and shooting (he’s shot and and hit more threes [5/17] than his entire college career [0/2]) will come.
There will remain spot minutes for the older fellas. Rookies are oft to find themselves in ruts – wear-and-tear or dips in confidence. Veterans, in those cases, fill the professional void.
Until then, it’s time to let the rooks get their run.
2. Walter, Wielder of Space
The success of Ja’Kobe Walter’s first year, thus far, has been his patience.
Walter is not, traditionally, explosive – a fear some scouts expressed pre-draft. His first step advantage still leaves defenders lingering. Nor does Walter overwhelm opponents with sheer size or athleticism once on the attack.
That’s okay. Walter’s measured with the ball. An anomalous trait for a young combo guard.
He meanders, in a sense, twisting and turning about, as he drives. He’s assessing – where on the floor he needs to go, who’s guarding him, what angles remain, etc. – and searching for the advantage.
It’s not a blow-by Walter, necessarily, hunts. He’s simply looking to manipulate space. When a defender remains in front of Walter, and is bigger, like with Spencer Dinwiddie twice below, for example, Walter creates it.
Younger players might just bulldoze the switch between Dinwiddie and Dwight Powell (we shan’t forget Mr. Bull-in-the-China-Shop, O.G. Anunoby, shan’t we?). Instead, Walter, seeing Dinwiddie settle below the second screen, knows to pull-up. All he needs is enough space for the shot. In the first clip, that’s a step back; in the second, it’s a hesi-quick-dribble fadeaway.
With smaller opponents, Walter, instead of creating space, closes it.
In all three clips, Walter comes to a stop, squares his body, and regains his balance. He allows the retreating defenders to catch up, and leans into them knowing they’re both victim to momentum and too small to contest.
Alternatively, when Walter does get by his defender and is forced to slow, he preserves space by sealing the retreating defender.
Walter does not panic despite the closing sandwich of the hedging bigs and Walter’s defender scrabbling from behind. He, waits, bum sticking out to buffer. His rolling partner forces the defending bigs to choose between the two, the uncertainty gives Walter all he needs to launch his floater.
All of this success is thanks, in big part, to Walter’s mid-range proficiency. In the paint, his shot’s a coinflip (24/47). From further out it’s a bit less certain, but in the last ten games he shot 7/9 from 8-to-16 feet.
There’s still room to develop, of course. His assist-to-usage rate is paltry. It will come. Especially, as the game slows further and his vision expands beyond what’s in front of him. He’s already shown glimpses. Watch Walter find Dick.
A shot never appears for Walter, he sees Dick open in the corner, but can’t reach him, Dick cuts, and it’s a smooth underhand sling.
Most of Walter’s work is on the second-side of an action or off the pick and roll (he’s averaging a modest 0.86 points per possession – the same as RJ Barrett and Jalyen Brown, at a much lower rate). He may have issues on his own (there is no isolation data for Walter due to low frequency) once he becomes the focus of a defence. Most do.
There will also be counters. His 3-point shot (11/48) will arrive. A longer mid-range (4/11) is on the way.
When it all coalesces, and it should, Walter’s use of space will become all the more dangerous and unpredictable.
3. Pöltl Post Strike
I know the League’s all about 3s, 3s, more 3s. A craze the Raptors are weirdly missing out on (third last in the league in attempts).
Still, post-ups are high percentage shots, and for an offence dwelling in the 24th percentile in half-court points per play, the Raptors may want to look down low more often.
Toronto’s tied for sixth in the league in post-up points per possession, but 22nd in frequency. More post-ups won’t necessarily mean same efficiency. There are still plenty opportunities where the option is overlooked or needed, or both.
Take this Horns set, for example.
Scottie receives a back screen, plunking him in the post in a mismatch with a diminutive TJ McConnell. McConnell, to his credit, fronts hard making the high-low pass too difficult. Mogbo struggles with Pascal Siakam and swings to Boucher in the corner. An auto-fired…no surprise there…contested three. Boucher hits it, but…Pause…Rewind…let’s try that again. Soft lob to, Barnes. A surer two points.
The play, at least, looked like it was designed for Scottie in the block. It mighta just been good defence. Or, Boucher missed/ignored him.
Point still stands. The Raptors seem to miss an easy post-entry or two each game. Especially, when it involves Jakob Pöltl.
Like below.
Dick can’t shake his defender loose, rather than wait a half second or so for Pöltl to seal the shorter Daniel Gafford, Dick opts for a contested fadeaway.
Or, here. Dick again.
A great shot. Look at Josh Hart trying to just even see around Pöltl.
It makes sense Pöltl sees the ball less with Barnes and Barrett on the floor. They’re the heavy lifters. When they’re not, Pöltl should be a greater focus. Or, at least, Head Coach, Darko Rajaković, should emphasize as much. In 341 possessions, with neither Barnes nor Barrett alongside Pöltl, the Raptors score in the 98th percentile.
Pöltl’s often the largest player on the floor with the softest touch. He’s immovable down low and one of the most efficient scorers there (1.06 points per possession). He’s also a reliable passer. Conservative, true, but opportunistic. Pöltl’s thrived out of the high post, in both Nick Nurse and Rajaković’s offences, hitting cutters on lobs and backdoors. He’s capable of the same lower down.
Despite all that, Pöltl posts up less frequently (9%) than those scoring at his rate. He won’t ever be the primary option of a modern offence, nor should he; an uptick, though, in his post-play might lead to Toronto finding a few easier buckets when times are rough. Which they can be: in the last ten games, the Raptors offensive rating dropped from 20th to 24th.
The more attention Raptors pay the post, the better off they all are. That’s basketball, baby.
4. Regarding the Recent Talk around Town
I’ll just say this (AKA rant).
The NBA TV ratings. The All-Star Game iterations. The E******* NBA Cup. The 82-game season. The too many 3s/bad defence fake debates. The expensive tickets and cheap hotdogs. Firing Zach Lowe. Seeing, shudder, Stephen A. Smith and Kendrick Perkins on TV every day.
All of it.
It’s all symptomatic of one big, obvious problem.
The NBA, and its stakeholders, DON’T. GIVE. A. SHIT. ABOUT. PEOPLE.
Fans, sure. Players, so long as they stick to the plan, yup. Governors, definitely. People, nuh uh.
If they did, the “solutions” posed by the NBA wouldn’t be so laughably bad and the “problems” the League “so horribly suffers by” would be fixed by now.
Instead, the NBA dances around the real, systemic issues and slaps a bunch of dumb, frivolous Band-Aids on top of them.
You want an increase in ratings? Or, more simply, you want more people interested in your entertainment business?
Make it more accessible.
Stop gouging us for tickets and beer and water and food. Refund or discount tickets when high-profile players sit out. Make some lower bowl/courtside tickets affordable. Stop milking every last dollar out of the next TV rights deal to the point that we have to watch games on half a dozen networks. Stop blacking out local broadcasts. Make League Pass good. Figure out the TV scheduling. Perhaps, don’t have 13 games all on one night at, nearly, the same time? Give smaller markets more national games. Don’t diss the “lesser” teams or cancel their National games. Reward franchises for drafting well and keeping their own talent (Salary Cap breaks or flexibility). Stop extorting cities to build multi-billion dollar complexes. Stop making everything happen in Las Vegas. Award franchises, incentivize them, nay, mandate they support their communities in an impactful way. Make games faster. No more challenges. No more reviews unless violence is egregious. Less commercials. Make the closing minutes of games end faster (aka more dramatic). Stop end-of-game fouling. Build off the Play-In. Worry less about building individual personas and more about building a sustainably, entertaining sport (Euro League and Olympic basketball is extremely fun and enjoyable). Mic up coaches so we can here in-game commentary and tactics. Support media who watch all the teams. Support journalism. Support adjacent/local media [Hullo] that is insightful, and analytical, and on-going, and talks about pertinent issues that don’t only involve New York or Los Angeles [Lakers]. Help the players care more about competing.
You want players to care more?
Reduce the season by a dozen and a half games. Make each game matter more. Raise the minimum salaries and salary caps. Untie All-NBA awards to contracts. Stricter guidelines on who votes and what is voted on with Awards ballots. Clean up the scheduling so travel isn’t an Environmental Disaster and hard on players. Get rid of the All-Star game, or, incentivize, accordingly. Fix in-game rules. No reviews. Fine foul hunting. Fine diving. Allow more physicality. Fine repeat offenders disrespecting referees. Have stricter rules when intentional harm is caused to others. Fine referees for obvious prejudice. Clamp down on referee egotism. Make the Last Two Minute Reports mean something. And, please, for the Love of God, call a foul when it’s a foul NOT because it doesn’t go in the hoop or because it’s a make-up call, or because it’s LeBron rolling around like he’s been shot in both feet, had both eyeballs prodded, and both hamstrings cut or because someone’s gestured so dramatically to God asking why must it be He who is so cursed!? Allow celebrations, even if it’s a bit of a taunt. Get rid of soft-ass technical fouls. Penalize sulking and whining.
And, please, for the sake of the game and the people that love it. NO MORE SHENANIGANS.
No more NBA Top Shot-type chicanery. No Meta virtual reality avatars. No gambling odds mid-game. No more gambling advice from commentators – it’s borderline negligence to have TV Network personalities like Leo Rautins or Kenny Smith or Charles Barkley OF ALL PEOPLE(!) telling me how to gamble.
Whatever else you’re thinking up? Stoppit. Just stop. Or, email me before you’re next “big idea”. Whatever Artificial Intelligence TV overlay you’re cooking up or new HoopCoin you’re about to release on the Blockchain, stop now, just don’t.
Rest on the laurels of what made this league a billion dollar venture: competition, personality, honesty, community. Maybe, don’t focus solely on growth and profits. Just sayin’.
Okay, next problem…
…anyone?
Happy safe, restful, loving Holidays to All.
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