On the Warriors failing to flip the switch against a slipped switch

Pacers remain undefeated at Chase Center.

Up two and having failed to separate from the Indiana Pacers — and entering the all-too important stage that is clutch period, in which the Golden State Warriors sport a record of 8-10 this season — the Warriors looked like they had the Pacers under control in the half court, which for the most part was the case throughout the entire game, limiting them to just 96.3 points per 100 half-court possessions. On the other hand, the Warriors themselves also weren’t making dents in the half court, having scored 96.8 points per 100 half-court possessions by the end of the night.

However — with another half-court possession seemingly on its way to be shut down — the Warriors were hit with a sudden curveball that caught them swinging wildly. Take note that they had no problem whatsoever with switching everything with Draymond Green at the five, while also having no qualms with Trayce Jackson-Davis seeing occasional switch-out perimeter reps. As such, when Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner run a pick-and-roll with Jackson-Davis switching onto Haliburton and Dennis Schröder switching onto the rolling Turner, it was a decision based on what happened much earlier in the game.

Turner is the Pacers’ walking Pandora’s Box for defenses trying to defend a Pacer pick-and-roll involving him as the screener. Defenses opening the figurative box can either be met with a Turner roll to the rim (45.7% of his possessions as the screener) or Turner staying put at the point of the screen and making himself available for a three (37.1%). On the former, he’s been quite mediocre: a single point per possession whenever he dives to the rim, per Synergy tracking. On the latter, he’s been quite monstrous: 1.349 points per possession when he stays put and makes himself available for a jumper, including a 16-of-30 clip (53.3%) on pick-and-pop threes.

As such, when the Pacers run an empty-corner ball screen, watch how Schröder “ices” Haliburton toward the sideline and away from Turner’s screen, with Jackson-Davis in drop coverage. If Turner decided to roll, “ice” would be a good coverage to contain both the ball and the roll, especially if weak-side help is on time to aid the coverage up front.

However:

Taking this into account, Schröder knows better the second time around. He makes sure to cover Turner’s pop by “veer-back” switching out onto Turner. But while the intention was there, the execution wasn’t — or rather, it wasn’t good enough. There’s also the age-old problem that comes with veer-back switching using guards: they’re often too small to affect jumpers from seven-foot stretch fives.

To account for this problem, the answer was simple: execute the switch better by being there earlier to take away the shooting big’s space, which brings us back to the aforementioned clutch-period possession. Schröder does get to Turner on time, but Turner decides to roll this time around:

The problem then becomes the matter of mismatches. On paper, there would be two as a result of a veer-back switch, or any switch that involves guards and bigs. Turner would have one against Schröder, although having rolled to the rim and not being a traditional smash-small-defenders-in-the-paint operator, it’s less likely that he will see a ball fed his way. Additionally, the Pacers are taking into account how the Warriors have rescued their small guards from being feasted on in the post against Turner and Pascal Siakam.

Siakam — whose game is more attuned to taking defenders in the post and pushing them close to the rim — is an immediate danger when switched out onto someone like Steph Curry, who is six inches shorter and 45 pounds lighter. Which is why Green comes over to bump Curry off of Siakam and redirect his teammate toward the weak-side corner, a maneuver known as a “scram” switch:

Back to the clutch-period possession, where Schröder does get the relief he needs to get out of being switched onto Turner, courtesy of Andrew Wiggins “scram” switching him out of the matchup:

With Jackson-Davis switched onto Haliburton and the clock winding down with no advantage created, the ball finds its way back to Haliburton facing Jackson-Davis. Most teams would be content with their superstar ball-handler trying to create something out of nothing against what would technically be considered a mismatch. But the Pacers — knowing the Warriors would most likely switch an incoming ball screen — throw a last-second curveball in the hopes that the Warriors will do just that.

Haliburton throws to Siakam in the corner. Siakam then quickly pitches the ball back to Haliburton and comes up to set a screen. Expecting a switch to happen, Siakam quickly slips the screen instead of setting it — the classic counter to switching at the point of attack. Jackson-Davis is caught in no-man’s land: not having switched onto Siakam, while also not committing to an aggressive coverage against Haliburton:

To make matters worse, Buddy Hield’s rotation to cover for Siakam’s slip to the rim ends up in an and-1 — and what was a two-point lead for the Warriors turns into a one-point deficit in a blink of an eye, born out of a need to veer back and cover a dangerous stretch five, the subsequent “scram” off of a bigger man, and an untimely countered switch coaxed out by the Pacers’ timely Plan C. It was a lead the Pacers wouldn’t relinquish on their way to a 111-105 win, their sixth win in Chase Center out of six games.

That was the story mired in the micro details of the game; the overarching theme was the struggle of Curry, who had a rough shooting and scoring night: 10 points on 13 shots, 2-of-9 on threes, and a 33.9% True Shooting mark. Moreover, a key Andrew Nembhard layup was made possible from a Curry defensive mistake.

Green — in an effort to rescue Curry from having to defend Haliburton out on the perimeter — attempts to monitor onto the ball-screen action right away by stepping up to meet Haliburton around the screen, allowing Brandin Podziemski a window to recover onto Haliburton and for Green to stay home on Siakam. Nembhard’s screen is an attempt to draw Green away from the screening action and force Curry to have to switch onto Haliburton.

However, Curry is caught in no-man’s land — unsure of whether to switch out onto Haliburton or recover back toward Nembhard. As a result, no one ends up covering Nembhard on his cut toward the rim, with Haliburton finding him for a wide-open layup:

Green himself wasn’t immune to mistakes. Turner’s dagger three to effectively seal the deal for the Pacers came on a miscalculation by Green — attempting to show help on a Haliburton drive defended by Schröder. Knowing that Turner is behind him ready to make himself available for a dump-off pass, Green signals to Jonathan Kuminga to come over and help him by sinking against Turner.

But while no ball screen for Haliburton came, Turner still did what was natural to him as a stretch five — and in one swift movement, countered what Green intended to do and buried the Warriors for good, dealing them their 10th loss in 13 games: