Eight Royals predictions for 2025
These will probably be wrong...but they might be right!
We are nearing the end of 2024, and what a remarkable year it was for the Royals. I tried to be optimistic in my predictions a year ago, but I don’t think even the most positive Royals fan could have thought the team would improve by 30 games and make the playoffs.
As for my other predictions last time, Bobby Witt Jr. did sign a long-term deal, but John McMillon did not really pan out at all here and the stadium vote fell with a thud. So take these predictions with a grain of salt. Still, it’s fun to dream about the future, so here are my Royals-related predictions for 2025.
The Royals add a bat, but it will be a young, unproven hitter
The Royals have talked a lot about taking a more sustainable approach that thinks long-term with an eye on contending every season. With a thin free agent market with high prices, I think they’ll turn to trades, but will shy away from deals for veterans with only one or two year of club control left.
That means looking for younger players who aren’t eligible for free agency for several years. Those players can be quite expensive to acquire, so they’ll have to look for someone whose value has taken a hit. My guess is the Royals end up acquiring Brett Baty from the Mets - he’s a former top 100 prospect who hasn't performed at the big league level in a limited audition. The Royals believe in their hitting development staff - for better or for worse - and I think they’d rather gamble on a young player with upside than on a veteran who is on the way down.
The outfield will remain pretty much unchanged
The Royals had the third-worst offensive production from their outfield last year, by wRC+ and seems to be the most glaring area for an upgrade. But I don’t think the Royals will be eager to meet the high asking prices of free agent outfielders. Anthony Santander is reportedly asking for over $100 million, the Dodgers seem ready to move on from Teoscar Hernandez over his high demands, and while Jurickson Profar would make sense, a three-year commitment for a player that had a -1.6 WAR value in 2023 is a risk.
The Royals could trade for an unproven or underachieving outfielder, but they already have one in MJ Melendez. J.J. Picollo’s comments about not giving up on a player so early in his career likely means MJ gets one more long look out there in the hopes he can figure things out. I don’t see the Royals jettisoning Hunter Renfroe with his $7.5 million salary and they love Kyle Isbel’s defense in center. So the team is stuck with the outfield they have, likely figuring that Michael Massey can help as he becomes some sort of utility player. But the outfield could continue to be an issue going forward.
The Royals send four players to the All-Star Game
The Royals sent four players this year, and it could start to be a regular thing for them. I’ll predict some regression from 2024 All-Star Seth Lugo, but the other three Royals All-Stars seem like a decent bet to return to the Midsummer’s Classic - Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Cole Ragans. I’ll add reliever Lucas Erceg to their ranks, as he came on at the end of last season and proved to be a dominant weapon out of the pen.
I’ll go one further and predict Witt starts for the first time, and Ragans gets the start on the bump in Atlanta.
Jac Caglianone will be in the big leagues by the end of year
The Royals’ first-round pick in 2024 is a pretty polished college bat who already has big league power. But he struggled in his first pro season, hitting .241/.302/.388 in 29 games in High-A ball, hardly a stepping stone to the Majors. He got off to a slow start in the Arizona Fall League but really seemed to turn things on late.
And that’s why I think he’ll be in the big leagues before very long. He’s a smart hitter who can make adjustments, and getting to The Show will require cutting down on strikeouts and doing damage to hittable pitches. Having 80-grade power can also cover up a lot of mistakes. His development likely won’t be linear - I can see him getting off to a slow start only to go on a torrid hitting pace. And with the Royals likely needing an offensive boost late in the year, he could be their secret weapon.
The Royals extend Salvador Perez
Salvador Perez is in the fourth year of his four-year, $82 million contract that includes a $13.5 million club option for 2026. There were some trade rumors before last year surrounding Salvy, but once he was convinced the Royals were trying to win, he was all-in. It’s hard to imagine Salvy playing anywhere else, and I suspect his side and the Royals will find a mutually advantage long-term deal that keeps Salvy in Kansas City a few more years past his current deal. If I had to guess, I’d say something like a three-year deal worth around $13-15 million per year with an option - he’d be 38 or 39 when the deal expires. Incredibly, he is still a productive player and the team would love to keep him in a Royals uniform as he adds to his resume for Coopertown.
The Royals win 92 games and take the division
For all their improvement last year, the Royals actually underachieved in the standings if you consider their run differential. Their Pythagorean W-L was 91-71, five games better than their actual 86-76 record. They had some bad luck - they were 17-21 in one-run games, the eighth-worst record in baseball.
The Royals had a lot of bullpen issues at the beginning of last year, but seemed to find a core that worked by the time the playoff rolled around. Adding Erceg turned out to be huge, and Hunter Harvey could be a contributor in the pen next year. So even if the starting pitching regresses a bit, the bullpen
So even if the starting pitching regresses a bit, the bullpen should improve. The Royals and Tigers will engage in a terrific divisional race that comes down to the wire, with the Royals edging them out on the final day (it helps the Royals end the season at the Angels and A’s).
The Royals will announce a new downtown ballpark at Washington Square Park
Well the last vote failed, so it appears the Royals and the city are looking to circumvent a vote this time around. The city seems determined to put a downtown ballpark near the Power and Light District, and the Washington Square Park site has easier land assemblage than this year’s ill-fated Crossroads plan. The area also has plenty of parking available, although infrastructure and parking upgrades will likely still be necessary.
How will it be financed? Good question! The city could tap into tax incentives, as they did to finance the Power and Light District. Missouri’s Governor-elect Mike Kehoe has been non-committal on the teams, but has indicated he wants to keep them from leaving the state. But there are ways to make this happen without including the obstinate Jackson County Authority, and I would guess we hear an announcement soon.
Bobby Witt Jr. wins MVP
It’s not much of a stretch to predict a 30/30 Gold Glove-winning shortstop who finished second in MVP voting will win the award. Bobby got better as the season went on, putting up his best numbers in the hot summer months when the grind of the marathon season should have been wearing him down. He hit .345/.419/.635 after the All-Star Game, and even posted a 10 percent walk rate over the final two months.
There are some very talented players in the American League - Aaron Judge is still with the Yankees, Gunnar Henderson is one of a number of talented hitters in Baltimore, José Ramírez is a perennial MVP candidate, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still in his prime. But Bobby’s talent is overwhelming and I think he’ll post just the second MVP season in club history, joining George Brett’s 1980 season.
What are your predictions for 2025?