PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – The number of Oregon high school graduates is expected to see a near 20% decline by the year 2041, according to a report released in December.

The report -- which was first reported by OPB -- was released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education – a group of 48 commissioners appointed by governors aiming to strengthen education and workforce development in the region encompassing 15 states including Oregon, Washington, California, Idaho, Hawaii, Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota.

According to WICHE's "Knocking at the College Door" report, the number of high school graduates is projected to peak in 2025 between 3.8 and 3.9 million students.

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After 2025 -- when people born in 2008 and later (when there was a fall in births because of the Great Recession) will start graduating from high school. Periods of stability are expected before the national trend will slope below 3.4 million graduates by 2041, the report says.

Zooming into the West, the report projects the region will see a 20% drop in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, which includes students graduating from public and private schools.

In Oregon -- during the anticipated peak in high school graduates in 2025 -- the state is projected to see 42,752 students graduate. That peak is projected to fall to around 33,000 graduates by 2041, according to the report-- marking a 19% fall.

In a statement to KOIN 6 News, Ben Cannon, the executive director of the Higher Education Coordinating Commission -- a state agency working to boost success in higher education and workforce training -- said this report shows that Oregon needs to help students better prepare for the workforce.

"These projections suggest that Oregon faces additional, looming workforce shortages. We know that we're already not producing enough well-trained workers for a number of critical industries, and declining high school and college completion numbers will stretch an already-tight labor force even further," Cannon said.

The HECC executive director offered several suggestions to improve high school graduation outcomes in the state. This includes helping Oregonians earn college credentials and establish careers in high-demand fields.

Cannon added, "By making higher education more affordable and accessible, we can sustain the number of Oregonians receiving postsecondary education and career preparation even in the face of declining numbers of high school graduates."

While most of the western states in the report show a declining number of graduates, some states will see gains by 2041 including Idaho (which will see a 13% rise), North Dakota (13% rise), and South Dakota (7% rise), according to the report.

Overall, the report says the West's projected 20% drop in the number of high school graduates by 2041 mirrors national trends.

“The news for colleges and the workforce is cause for concern,” said WICHE President Demarée Michelau. “Yet even for the more populated states that will bear most of the decline, the bottom will not fall out overnight. States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs. There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience.”

WICHE notes that the December report “comes at a critical time” for the United States, citing workforce shortages in certain job sectors, and increasing skepticism about the value of higher education.

“The next few years represent an opportunity for states, business leaders, and higher education to work together to develop stronger connections to K-12 schools, better incentives and financial and academic supports for postsecondary learning, and more powerful pathways to and from work and learning,” said Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis and research and lead author of the report. “This is not the first time higher education has faced enrollment headwinds, and the ultimate outcome does not need to be gloomy. There are strong, evidence-backed approaches that can truly benefit students and also help meet the daunting workforce challenges of the future.”

The concerns outlined in the report are not unique, according to WICHE, which drew parallels between the 2024 report to their first report in 1979 amid college enrollment declines and inflation concerns; however, the pandemic also impacted student learning.

“Much like in 1979, the data and analyses within these pages will likely fuel further concerns for those across higher education as we witness the arrival of a moment that has long been predicted: the peak and subsequent decline in the number of high school graduates. Adding to the uncertainty are the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which contributed to fluctuations in K-12 enrollments and to the phenomenon of learning loss across all levels of education,” Michelau said.

The report also offers potential solutions including increased investments to make college more affordable, making financial aid “more transparent and less confusing,” and improving academic support for students in higher education.