'Let’s put this delusion to bed': Writer pours cold water on Biden 'fantasy'

In the aftermath of the 2024 election, some Joe Biden staffers have accused Vice President Kamala Harris behind closed doors of blowing the election, relitigating whether it was even necessary for Biden to drop out in the first place and speculating whether he could have defeated Donald Trump had he just stuck with it and fought past the disastrous debate in June.

This is a complete "fantasy," Will Saletan wrote for The Bulwark — and the polling data makes it clear Biden was not just heading for a far worse blowout, he was a key factor in why Harris lost in the first place.

"It’s not clear whether Biden actually believes this. His aides and associates have given varying accounts. But some people in his circle seem to be nursing the idea that he should have remained in the race and would have succeeded where Harris failed," wrote Saletan. "They’re wrong. Let’s put this delusion to bed."

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The VoteCast data on the 2024 electorate paints a clear picture of what happened, Saletan explained — and it shows that Biden put Democrats in a huge deficit that Harris managed to climb out of, but only partly.

"The top row of the table shows that 70 percent of voters knew all along which way they were going to vote. Of these, 59 percent voted for Trump and 40 percent for Harris. Since Harris didn’t replace Biden till July, it’s logical to infer that those 40 percent were going to vote for Biden. She basically inherited them," wrote Saletan. "Losing 70 percent of the electorate by a spread of 59 percent to 40 percent is very bad. It means that Biden put Harris in a serious hole. When you do the math, it means that she began her leg of the relay with locked-in support from only 28 percent of the electorate, compared to Trump’s 41 percent."

With that in mind, Saletan concluded, it's a wonder Harris kept the race as close as she did.

"There’s plenty to regret about Biden’s campaign," he wrote. "Maybe he should have skipped the 2024 race and let a new generation of Democrats fight it out. Maybe he should have focused less on passing good legislation and more on taking credit. Maybe — and it pains me to say this, as a Bulwark institutionalist — he shouldn’t have counted on a majority of Americans to stand up for the rule of law. But handing the reins to Harris in July, rather than sticking it out, wasn’t one of his mistakes. His mistake was that he didn’t do so sooner."