Will California sell gas cars after 2035? Nobody knows for sure.

While the Biden administration approved California’s effort to ban new sales of gas-powered cars by 2035, the Golden State’s automotive future remains uncertain.

The incoming Trump administration is likely to try to undo the December approval — and a wave of litigation will also probably challenge the Biden administration’s decision. 

But President-elect Trump’s anticipated actions could also face court challenges. And California could have more tricks up its sleeve to push its market toward electric vehicles regardless of what Trump does. 

“There's just an enormous amount of uncertainty about whether the rule goes into effect — lots of moving parts. It will take a while before we know the answer to that question,” said Ann Carlson, a former Biden administration official who is now an environmental law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. 

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets its own rules for the nation about how much emissions automakers’ fleets can emit. The rules put forward by the Biden administration are so stringent that they will require a significant share of the auto market to become electric — but they don’t ban gas cars entirely.

The Clean Air Act prevents states from setting different rules from the federal government — though as California has historically dealt with unique smog problems, the law provides an exemption allowing it to seek a waiver to set its own rules that go further than the federal ones. 

The Biden administration recently granted that waiver, allowing California’s new standards that ban the sales of gas cars by 2035 to take effect.

Eleven other states and Washington, D.C. — which combined with California make up more than 30 percent of the nation’s car market — have adopted California’s rule, meaning they, too, are poised for a shift away from gas cars. 

In theory, this makes California’s rule a major shift in the American auto market — and a giant step forward in the nation’s fight against the climate crisis. 

But a tangled web of law, politics and market considerations make the rule’s actual expected outcome less clear.

The EPA’s approval of California’s gas car ban is sure to come with lawsuits. Republican-led states, oil, gasoline and ethanol producers and the auto industry are among the parties that could sue to try to overturn the rules.

At the same time, the Trump administration will also likely to revoke the waiver through the regulatory process — though this action could also spur lawsuits from supporters of the California rule. 

The EPA’s own standards, which if unchanged could make just 29 percent of the cars sold nationwide in 2032 gas-powered, will face similar legal uncertainty. The national rule already faces a lawsuit and Trump’s threats to overturn it. 

However, any future Trump rule could also face legal hurdles from green groups that would argue it’s not strict enough. 

As the legal process plays out, it’s not clear for automakers what their national- or state-level electric vehicle sales requirements will be.

“Navigating these challenges is especially acute for heavily regulated automakers and suppliers because of our multi-year design and manufacturing cycles and the significant capital expenditures necessary to bring any new vehicle to market,” John Bozzella, president of the lobbying group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a recent memo to Trump. He also called the current California and federal rules “out-of-step” with market realities. 

California could try to implement a side deal with carmakers amid the potential policy and legal battles.

After the last Trump administration revoked an Obama-era EPA authorization for California to set car standards, the state and several automakers inked a deal to increase the fuel efficiency of their car fleets. 

“If companies are looking for certainty, their best effort will be to have an agreement with California,” said Margo Oge, who directed the EPA’s Transportation and Air Quality office for nearly two decades. 

Oge said that if she were an auto company she "would want to know, at least for the biggest market in the U.S., that I can provide cars.”

A spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board did not directly answer The Hill’s question about whether the state would pursue a similar deal this time. Instead, the spokesperson directed The Hill to the agency’s press release on the EPA waiver in which California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said, “Clean cars are here to stay … California can rise to the challenge of protecting our people by cleaning our air and cutting pollution.”

If the carmakers do strike any such accord, it’s not clear what share of new cars sold would be electric — and on what timeline — under the agreement.  

Another wildcard is that Republicans may try for a shortcut: the Congressional Review Act (CRA). This law allows simple majorities of the House and Senate to overturn a recent regulatory rule with the president’s approval.

The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan congressional watchdog, has said that the EPA waiver is not subject to be overturned under the CRA. 

But Republicans could still try to use the tool anyway, said Carlson, who was the acting administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under President Biden. 

She added that this would almost certainly spur “a follow-up lawsuit, ... arguing that the Congressional Review Act does not, in fact, apply to waivers.”

Asked whether the GOP would pursue a CRA, a spokesperson for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) did not directly answer, instead saying that the incoming chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee would look for any way possible to reverse the Biden administration’s action.