2025 Golden Globes film predictions: Who should win, who could win, and who will win

And so it begins.

Sunday’s 82nd Golden Globe Awards starts the engine for the inexorable drive to Oscars, and providing a reality check for the would-be frontrunners and dark horses, alike. Leading the way in the movie categories is the intrepid Spanish-language gangster musical Emilia Pérez with 10 nominations, the most-nominated comedy/musical film in Globes history. Several other films are coming in with high hopes: The Brutalist has seven bids, Conclave has six, Anora has five, and Wicked and A Real Pain have four apiece.

Here are our expert picks for who and what should win and could win — as well as a forecast of who actually will win.

Best Film Drama

• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Nickel Boys
• September 5

Who should win: The Brutalist
Who could win: Conclave
Who will win: The Brutalist

Brady Corbet’s sweeping epic is a towering cinematic achievement that features uniformly phenomenal performances and superb direction. As such, it deserves the biggest film drama prize the Globes has to offer. It’s also enormously long at north of 3 1/2 hours, but moviegoers seem to be forgiving The Brutalist for it. Conclave also has a genuine shot, but Brutalist has thus far dominated with the critics, which goes a long way with voters.

Best Film Comedy/Musical

• Anora
• Challengers
• Emilia Pérez
• A Real Pain
• The Substance
• Wicked

Who should win: Emilia Pérez
Who could win: Wicked
Who will win: Anora

Netflix’s Emilia Pérez is a wacky, brilliant gangster musical, words most never expected to find together inside a single sentence. It’s as bracing and innovative as any film in memory, but also divisive. Wicked is, of course, a major box-office triumph but looks as if it will follow the path of Barbie last year and save its recognition for the box-office achievement race. In the end, though, the crowd-pleasing Anora has brought together filmgoers and critics in a way that generates paydirt at awards time.

Best Film Drama Actor

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
• Daniel Craig, Queer
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Who should win: Chalamet
Who could win: Fiennes
Who will win: Brody

Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan has proven a major source of buzz of late — deservedly so — and as we noted earlier this week, the Globes have a history of rewarding dramatic actors who perform in musical biopics. Fiennes, meanwhile, turns in the kind of thoughtful, understated performance that’s often catnip for voters because it feels important. But it’s Brody who looks to have the inside track for his magnificent work in a movie that’s getting its Best Picture bona fides in order.

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor

• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
• Hugh Grant, Heretic
• Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
• Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
• Glen Powell, Hit Man
• Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Who should win: Powell
Who could win: Stan
Who will win: Eisenberg

In a very tough category, Powell is a comedy revelation in Hit Man. Unfortunately, he’s up against lots of heavy-duty competition. Stan in particular shines with a bold and daring piece of acting that grabs you from the outset and never lets go. So why is Eisenberg the choice to win? Because he has written and directed for himself a movie that showcases brilliant chemistry between him and Kieran Culkin — and his charisma ultimately rises above the rest.

Best Film Drama Actress

• Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
• Angelina Jolie, Maria
• Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
• Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
• Kate Winslet, Lee

Who should win: Torres
Who could win: Kidman
Who will win: Jolie

The only nominee in the category whose film is also nominated in a second category (non-English film), Torres is also an energetic campaigner who turns in a masterful performance. But she’s unfortunately in a heavyweight category opposite Oscar winners including Kidman and Jolie. Babygirl — a movie with Fatal Attraction-like energy — is a very strong role for Kidman and could well catapult her into the winner’s circle. But the suspicion is when the dust clears, it will be Jolie standing onstage for her portrayal of opera legend Maria Callas.

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress

• Amy Adams, Nightbitch
• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Demi Moore, The Substance
• Zendaya, Challengers

Who should win: Madison
Who could win: Gascón
Who will win: Madison

This may be the flat-out toughest category to predict. Sure, Madison is a revelation in Anora and far ahead in the Gold Derby odds, but a convincing case can be made for at least four of the nominees, including Erivo, Gascón, and Moore. Gascón would be the first out trans woman to win here, and that could be a lure to voters. And Erivo’s performance contributes mightily to Wicked’s sheer heft. Moore’s star power and comeback story also makes for a compelling narrative. But in the end, Madison is our pick.

Best Film Supporting Actress

• Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
• Ariana Grande, Wicked
• Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
• Margaret Qualley, The Substance
• Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Who should win: Saldaña
Who could win: Qualley
Who will win: Grande

Saldaña has looked unbeatable of late. She’s blessed with a meaty role in Emilia Pérez, singing, dancing, and acting up a storm as the heroine of the piece. But there could be vote-splitting between Saldaña and Gomez, opening the door for Grande to sneak through. Her pop stardom is also poised to elevate her. Qualley also has an outside shot in a very offbeat role a human who lacks both a heart and a soul.

Best Film Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov, Anora
• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Who should win: Culkin
Who could win: Pearce
Who will win: Culkin

As a follow-up to his consistently stellar work in Succession as Roman Roy, Culkinis the obvious frontrunner and one who seems less susceptible to an upset (even if he can’t seem to get away from his Succession costar Strong). If there were to be one, Pearce is the likeliest choice for his masterful work in The Brutalist, and it’s difficult to outright dismiss a past Cecil B. DeMille Award winner in Washington. But all of that said, Culkin — playing a free spirit with a tender core in A Real Pain — looks pretty unbeatable.

Best Film Director

• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Edward Berger, Conclave
• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
• Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Who should win: Corbet
Who could win: Audiard
Who will win: Corbet

The Globes went a little avant-garde with their directorial nominees, particularly Fargeat and Kapadia. The list has a distinctly international flavor. But it’s likely that an American born in Scottsdale, Ariz., will claim this prize. Corbet has already proved popular on the awards circuit this season, and that will continue at the Globes with his epic direction on The Brutalist. The sheer audaciousness of Emilia Pérez gives Audiard a shot, but only a shot.

Best Film Screenplay

• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
• Peter Straughan, Conclave

Who should win: Baker
Who could win: Straughan
Who will win: Baker

Voters like to reward crowd-pleasers that are also critical breakouts. Witness all of the plaudits that went Oppenheimer’s way during the last awards season. For far different reasons, Anora is a film you root for. For that reason, the film’s writer-director is a safe bet here, with Straughan’s Conclave script in the running as an upset option if voters decide to go for movie that’s not nearly as hip.

Best Animated Feature

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Moana 2
• Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Foul
• The Wild Robot

What should win: The Wild Robot
What could win: Flow
What will win: The Wild Robot

In any other year, this would be an Inside Out 2 triumph by a landslide. But the Pixar feature will have to be content with its piles of cash, because all signs are pointing towards The Wild Robot. Since it emerged at the Toronto International Film Festival, the film has been rapturously embraced by critics and audiences. It’s an instant classic, with a star-studded voice cast (Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Bill Nighy, Ving Rhames. Matt Berry, and Stephanie Hsu) provideing an added bonus.

Best Non-English Film

• All We Imagine as Light
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• The Girl With the Needle
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig
• Vermiglio

Who should win: Emilia Pérez
Who could win: All We Imagine as Light
Who will win: Emilia Pérez

This seems like a complete no-brainer, with Emilia Pérez winning in a rout. The only way we don’t see Emilia winning would be if voters decide to reward it with Best Comedy/Musical, and then spread the wealth by giving this prize to India’s All We Imagine as Light or Brazil’s I’m Still Here. Globes voters can be unpredictable, but in this case we’re sticking with the obvious choice.

Best Score

• Challengers
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• The Brutalist
• The Wild Robot

What should win: Emilia Pérez
What could win: Conclave
What will win: Emilia Pérez

Emilia Pérez was the most-nominated film at the Globes this year, a rarity for a musical. How do you vote against a musical for Best Score? Simple: you don’t. This isn’t to say it’s a shoo-in. Not with the blaring techno of Challengers (which some found it too loud and grating) and the on-point melodrama of Conclave. This category is a bit of a litmus test for Emilia’s Oscar chances. Don’t bet against it here.

Best Song

• “Beautiful That Way” — The Last Showgirl
• “Compress/Repress” — Challengers
• “El Mal” — Emilia Pérez
• “Forbidden Road” — Better Man
• “Kiss the Sky” — The Wild Robot
• “Mi Camino” — Emilia Pérez

What should win: “Kiss the Sky”
What could win: “Mi Camino”
What will win: “El Mal”

Emilia Pérez is the only film with two Best Song nominations — also paired on the Oscar shortlist — “El Mal” and “Mi Camino.” The chief competition is “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot. While the Selena Gomez-sung “Mi Camino” is no slouch, we’re going with “El Mal,” being the more climactic of the two Emilia tunes and featuring the fiery pipes of Zoe Saldaña in the film’s most breathtaking moment.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

• Alien: Romulus
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
• Deadpool and Wolverine
• Gladiator II
• Inside Out 2
• The Wild Robot
• Twisters
• Wicked

What should win: Wicked
What could win: Inside Out 2
What will win: Wicked

The Globes’ weirdest category that doesn’t completely know what it wants to be when it grows up. We’re not sure what kind of calculus is needed to determine a winner. Last year, Barbie was the easy pick and it proved to be that film’s consolation prize. If we’re strictly going by box office, then Inside Out 2 should be a shoo-in, easily ranking as the No. 1 earner worldwide. While Wicked has been soaring, it’s only the No. 3 grosser of the year (Deadpool and Wolverine is No. 2), the musical has the Barbie vibe as the crowd-pleaser that might come up empty in the big categories but won’t go home empty-handed.

Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.