If President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. asks to be briefed on the national security situation in 2025 and its geopolitical implications — including strategies and policy responses — to whom would he give the task? Will it be Eduardo Año, his national security adviser (NSA)? Or Gilberto Teodoro, the defense secretary? Or Enrique Manalo, his foreign affairs secretary? Or all of the above?

Ideally, it is the national security adviser. The NSA should have the big picture, equipped with an understanding of defense issues, global events that impact the Philippines, and how all these relate to foreign policy and security. In other words, a strategic thinker.

But Año is not known to have a strong policy background, having come from the narrow field of military intelligence and operations. He led the army and later, the armed forces, after which he became interior secretary during Duterte’s presidency, dealing with local governments and the police. 

In terms of personal relationships, it is an open secret in the defense establishment that he and Teodoro do not get along well, thus the absence or lack of coordination. It appears, though, that the NSA and defense secretary are both comfortable with Manalo. 

While these three Cabinet members are aligned on the policy shift, standing up to China and asserting the country’s sovereign rights, the implementation is riven by bureaucratic infighting. This results in a confused public communications process leaving basic questions unresolved: What is the flow of information? Who speaks on West Philippine Sea issues? What are the messages to convey?

This is Marcos’s weakest link: He has been unable to run a tight security team. With the country facing a generational and strategic challenge that is China, the Philippines cannot afford to be at war with itself.

Burden of foreign policy

Ultimately, the weight of foreign policy decisions rests on Marcos in a year that will continue to be dominated by Philippine relations with China.

There will be surprises in 2025 and dramatic events can happen as we saw in 2024, the most prominent of which was the June 17 assault of the Philippine Navy by the China Coast Guard. We are in a new age of turbulence. Marcos has to strengthen the fundamentals of governance to be able to respond effectively and avert a crisis.

The President has been on the right track in calling for a de-escalation of tension with China. He needs to build on this, focusing on three organizing principles: first, strategic communications; second, diplomacy, and third, deterrence. He will have to fortify these three fronts. 

The first entails keeping open lines of communication between key officials from both countries. From our end, apart from Marcos, these include Manalo, Teodoro, and Año — and their representatives — imparting unified messages.

The second, diplomacy, requires that both sides create space to work together on managing our relations and common areas of interest — extending to trade and investments.

The third, deterrence, has been a major ongoing project mainly in the investments in the modernization of the armed forces and in the strengthening of military-to-military relations with like-minded countries. We expect this to continue in the form of bilateral and multilateral exercises that sharpen interoperability of the concerned armed forces.

What to expect in 2025

Amid the troubled relations between Manila and Beijing, here’s what to expect in 2025:

• The contest between America and China will loom large, the most important bilateral relation in the world. China will continue to challenge the rules-based international order. Xi Jinping, in an apparent warning to President-elect Donald Trump, reiterated in his final meeting with Joe Biden in November last year that “Taiwan independence” and cross-Strait peace are “irreconcilable as water and fire.”
• With Trump leading the US, the world awaits how relations between the two superpowers will unfold. So far, Trump has not mentioned the South China Sea and Southeast Asia in his pronouncements as they relate to their geopolitical rivalry. But Xi told Biden, during their meeting at the sidelines of APEC last year, that China firmly upholds its “territory, sovereignty and maritime rights…in the South China Sea” and that the US “should not get involved in bilateral disputes,” referring to the Beijing-Manila maritime dispute.
• There will be leadership changes in countries with which the Philippines has vibrant security relations — although these may not be disrupted. In South Korea, we will know who will take over after the Constitutional Court rules on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. In Canada, federal elections are scheduled in 2025 and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is unlikely to win. This year, Australia will hold its  federal elections and it’s expected to be a tight race for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
• In the area of deterrence, the AFP upgrade will continue as well as the building and strengthening of security partnerships. The Philippines needs to diversify and not put all its eggs in one basket.

  – Ottawa and Manila are expected to sign a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) early this year. Canadian Ambassador David Harman told me: “We’re very optimistic. I don’t want to disturb conversations that are taking place, but I can assure you that there are very extensive and comprehensive conversations … on the conclusion of the SOVFA which we’re hoping to do early in the new year.”

– Next in line are France and New Zealand. Last September, the French were expected to submit to the Philippines its draft of the Visiting Forces Agreement as the basis for negotiations. A conclusion of the negotiations is likely this year.

      – For its part, the New Zealand government announced last year that they were working with the Philippines to conclude a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) by the end of 2024. This, however, has not come to fruition — and talks are expected to start this year. The SOFA follows a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement signed in June 2024 which “strengthens cooperation between the defense personnel and lays the groundwork for greater collaboration with the Philippines in the future.”

• In legislation, the Marcos government is expected to push for the passing of a law on malign activities and foreign interference in the wake of China’s disinformation campaign and attempts at setting up an espionage network in the Philippines. 

It will be an uncertain year ahead and this is not the time for division. Marcos should be prepared to navigate this moment and steer the country through uncharted waters. – Rappler.com