The NFL's biggest win total overachievers (Vikings!) and underachievers (Browns?) in 2024
Too often we look at stats and odds at the beginning of a season to get an idea of how teams are expected to perform without looking back to see how close those predictions came to being true. Today, I’m aiming to change that a bit with a look back at preseason win total over/unders.
How close did the sportsbooks come to being right about each team? Did more teams finish over or under their preseason projections? Who were the biggest overachievers and underachievers. These things are all important when it comes to knowing how to approach win totals in the future. So let’s dive into the facts.
Going by win totals at BetMGM, the same number of teams hit the under as teams that hit the over in 2024 at 16 apiece. Just 11 teams finished within two games of their win total projections, while 21 finished at least three games off the number. That includes eight teams that finished at least five games over or under their projections, listed below as the biggest overachievers and underachievers of the season.
Biggest overachievers
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1. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
Preseason over/under: 6.5 wins
Games over: 8
2. Washington Commanders (12-5)
Preseason over/under: 6.5 wins
Games over: 6
3. Detroit Lions (15-2)
Preseason over/under: 10.5 wins
Games over: 5
4. Denver Broncos (10-7)
Preseason over/under: 5.5 wins
Games over: 5
Biggest underachievers
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1. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Preseason over/under: 8.5 wins
Games under: 6
2. San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
Preseason over/under: 11.5 wins
Games under: 6
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
Preseason over/under: 8.5 wins
Games under: 5
4. New York Jets (5-12)
Preseason over/under: 9.5 wins
Games under: 5
How many games each team finished over or under their preseason win total
| Overs | (+) | Unders | (-) |
| Vikings | +8 | Browns | -6 |
| Commanders | +6 | 49ers | -6 |
| Lions | +5 | Jaguars | -5 |
| Broncos | +5 | Jets | -5 |
| Chiefs | +4 | Titans | -4 |
| Eagles | +4 | Giants | -4 |
| Bills | +3 | Bears | -4 |
| Chargers | +3 | Raiders | -3 |
| Steelers | +3 | Saints | -3 |
| Seahawks | +3 | Cowboys | -3 |
| Bucs | +3 | Falcons | -2 |
| Ravens | +2 | Dolphins | -2 |
| Packers | +2 | Bengals | -2 |
| Rams | +2 | Patriots | -1 |
| Cardinals | +2 | Panthers | -1 |
| Texans | +1 | Colts | -1 |