Who Will Win the Florence Pipe Pro? The Betting Odds Are In

For four days between December 10 and 20, you’ll see one of the most intriguing and competitive WSL Qualifying Series events of 2025. And it’s going to go down at the deadliest wave in the world. 

The 2025 Florence Pipe Pro kicks off this week, and if the forecast delivers, we could see the 36 entrants get several days of 8- to 10-footers unloading on the inside ledge. Taking on the role of title sponsor for the event is quite the feather in the cap for team Florence, both as a family and a relatively new company. In addition to hosting the event in their backyard, all three Florence brothers are currently confirmed entrants in the draw (although that is subject to change).

"For Florence to be the sponsor for the Pipe Pro is building a family legacy with my mom and brothers," said Ivan Florence, who dropped a 10 on his eldest brother’s head in the quarters back in ‘21. "Pipe is a place that, when it's either two feet or 20 feet, I know I'm home. A win at Pipe would be a dream come true and following in my brother's footsteps."

This year, you can now wager on event winners through BetOnline. The Australian-based sportsbook has hosted betting on the Championship Tour events over the past few years, but it's been a long time since it was available for a Hawaiian QS. You can find the Florence Pipe Pro odds for the men and women below or at this link here. 

So, who’s going to win? For obvious reasons, it’s hard to look past John John Florence (he is the betting favorite at +200). He won the whole thing the last time Pipeline had a QS back in December 2021. And despite being on a sailboat for most of 2025, he crushed the first big Pipe swell of the season last month. I think he'll be just fine at his home break.

“It means a lot that Florence was given the opportunity to sponsor the Pipe Pro,” John said in a statement before the event. “Contests at Pipe have been a big part of my life and competitive journey. I’m so excited our brand can be a part of this great event. Pipe is the best wave in the world to me. It has so many different faces to it. I think it’s one of the scariest and most challenging waves. From trying to win world titles to trying to get the wave of my life, I think I will be learning from this wave for a long time to come.

“Winning at Pipe, for me, is a special feeling,” John continued. “Mostly because we grew up idolizing the best surfers in the world and watching them win at Pipe. Andy, Kelly, etc., all had their moments that seemed larger than life. To have the chance to be a part of those moments is still surreal, and I'm thankful for every opportunity I get to compete at Pipe.”

But the talent across the board is such that no heat will be a breeze, even if there are perfect light trade winds. Look at the women’s side: Moana Jones Wong has won this event at multiple levels: QS (2021) and Championship Tour (2022) and the invitational Pipe Masters (2023). She’ll be contending with none other than five-time World Champion and gold medalist Carissa Moore. And they both have to watch out for 2025 CT Rookie of the Year Erin Brooks.

The men’s side is also loaded: Billy Kemper (2024 Da Hui Backdoor Shootout winner and perennial sender). Back-to-back CT Pipe Pro victor Barron Mamiya. Former event winner Josh Moniz. Ezekiel Lau is a high-key North Shore standout. Don’t sleep on Teahupo’o weapon and Olympic champ Kauli Vaast. And if the Triple Crown of Surfing were still around, local leadfoot Finn McGill would have a stranglehold on it after back-to-back wins at Sunset and Haleiwa. 

Another big change in this year's Pipeline contest is the qualification stakes. It's the final regional qualifier for the 2026 Challenger Series. The last chance for surfers in the Hawaii/Tahiti Nui QS region to move up the leaderboard and into the next echelon of competitive surfing. Finn and Moana both lead their respective fields.

The first call is 7 a.m. on December 10. We'll be tuning in.

Surfer Staff Predictions on the Florence Pipe Pro Winners

Jake Howard, Editor in Chief,

• Men's: Ivan Florence (+500)
• Women's: Bettylou Sakura Johnson (+325)

August Howell, Staff Writer

• Men's: Billy Kemper (+4,000)
• Women's: Moana Jones Wong (+500)

Dashel Pierson, Associate Editor

• Men's: Barron Mamiya (+450)
• Women's: Erin Brooks (+200)

Chris Dodds, Staff Writer

• Men's: Jackson Bunch (+2,000)
• Women's: Moana Jones Wong (+500)