The race for California governor is still in total flux

Californians are still six months out from the June 2026 primary elections that, among other things, will advance two candidates to be our next governor. Recent polling shows it’s still anyone’s game.

Just a few months ago, former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter was the undisputed frontrunner. A prolific fundraiser with high name recognition from her time in Congress and bid for U.S. Senate last year, Porter has shown a persistently higher level of support than other Democratic candidates in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.

In August 2025, Emerson College polling put her support at 18% compared to just 5% for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Then came the tapes.

In October, CBS News Sacramento reporter Julie Watts released her one-on-one interviews with many of the candidates for governor. While most of the candidates behaved professionally and answered her questions, Porter went viral for visibly losing her temper with Watts.

A lot happened in the two months that followed. U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla officially announced he was not going to jump into the race after much speculation. Two high-profile Democrats, billionaire Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwall jumped into the race just last month.

Fast forward to the latest polling from Emerson College conducted Dec. 1-2 which shows the state of the race appears to have been shaken up.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, tops the list with 13% support, followed by Swalwell and Republican pundit Steven Hilton both at 12%, Porter at 11%, and everyone else at single digits. This includes Villaraigosa still at 5% and Steyer at 4%.

The margin of error is 3%, so Bianco, Swalwell, Hilton and Porter are essentially tied in the upper tier of candidates.

This set looks quite a bit different from a recently released but already outdated poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, which surveyed Californians in the middle of November.

That poll found that Porter was still clearly the frontrunner, with 21% support with former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra and Hilton tied for second at 14%, followed by Bianco at 10% and everyone else in single digits.

Is it possible that Swalwell has effectively taken the lead from Porter? Perhaps, though it remains to be seen whether Swalwell can maintain and consolidate support from here.

There’s also still the possibility that others enter the race, further shaking up the race.

This includes California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who would be entering at an odd time given he’s lately been in the news for spending half a million dollars for legal help amid a federal bribery investigation involving Oakland’s former mayor. Then there’s businessman Rick Caruso, whose entry could be a wildcard that could attract support from moderate Democrats, independents and Republicans alike.

One thing is for certain: California can’t afford a Gov. Katie Porter. No one doubts she would take the bully pulpit literally. But the bigger problem is that her progressive agenda mixed with her lack of relevant executive experience makes her poorly suited to solve California’s litany of problems.

A large percentage of Democrats and of course Republicans seem to recognize this, which is also likely to put pressure on underperforming candidates (mainly Democrats) to drop out and put their support behind the Democrat most capable of beating Porter.

What the polling is showing is that it’s still an open race. We just hope, again, it’s not Katie Porter.