'Long shot to plausible': Veteran polling analyst says one Dem candidate changes huge race

A Democratic Party candidate weighing up a run for the Senate could be a "plausible" winner in a particular seat, a veteran pollster has suggested.

Nate Silver believes the Alaska Senate seat could be a much more competitive race with the right Dem candidate in place. Posting to X earlier today (January 7), Silver suggested the odds could tip into the Democratic Party's favour should they confirm former representative Mary Peltola.

It was reported yesterday that Peltola could be moving for a return to the Senate, with two people close to the matter telling Axios an announcement of her intention to run is imminent. Should Peltola confirm her run for the Senate, she would enter what Republican Party rep Lisa Murkowski called a "very, very, very hard race."

The move would aid Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, according to Hans Nichols, who suggested it would allow the party to go on the offense in 2026.

Peltola won two House elections in Alaska before narrowly losing in 2024 to Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) under the state's ranked-choice voting system. It's a run which veteran polling analyst Silver believes could sway the state back for the Democratic Party.

He wrote, "Would take D chances in AK from long shot to plausible. Even though still an uphill battle probably the biggest impact of any recruiting decision on Dems' overall chance of winning Senate."

Republican Party rep Murkowski, when asked about the chances of winning against Peltola, suggested it would be a tricky campaign trail. She said, "If she were to run against my colleague, yeah – it puts me in a difficult spot. But I also think it puts a lot of Alaskans in a difficult spot."

"I think it would be a very, very, very hard race. I think it'd be hard on people in this state. And again, I don't like the idea of, just, a really nasty, nasty race at the Senate level. I have said many times very publicly that Mary is my friend. I want Mary to do what's going to make Mary happy. And only Mary can determine that."