Pac-12 MBB power rankings: What the NET says about the post-realignment hierarchy on the West Coast
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of a conference that doesn’t exist (yet) using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition.
As the end of the college basketball regular season fast approaches, so, too, does the end of the existing conference structure across the western third of the country. The rebuilt Pac-12 comes online next fall, as does the revised Mountain West and the tweaked West Coast Conference.
Which future league has the brightest forecast based on current performance?
For full context, we dipped into the past, as well.
The Hotline used the most practical measure of conference strength, NET rankings, to examine the hierarchy for the following six conferences: the former Pac-12, the current WCC and Mountain West and the new Pac-12, Mountain West and WCC.
The data is revealing.
All six past, present and future leagues have their laggards, of course, but some possess more than others.
(Listed in order of average NET ranking.)
Former Pac-12
Average NET: 87.2
Top 50 teams: Arizona (2), UCLA (45) and USC (46)
No. 200 or worse: Oregon State (212)
Comment: It wasn’t a very good basketball conference when it existed, and it wouldn’t be now. Sure, Oregon State tarnishes every league it touches in this exercise, but the list of legacy underachievers includes Oregon (102) and Utah (131).
New Pac-12
Average NET: 115.1
Top 50 teams: Gonzaga (6) and Utah State (13)
200 or worse: Oregon State (212) and Texas State (266)
Comment: We have no idea if the rebuilt conference considered adding Texas State as a football-only member and looked elsewhere for the ninth basketball school — the Bobcats might not have agreed to those terms, after all — but remove them from the calculation and the new Pac-12’s average NET drops to 96.3.
Current Mountain West
Average NET: 117.8
Top 50 teams: Utah State (13) and New Mexico (41)
200 or worse: San Jose State (248) and Air Force (332)
Comment: The five departing schools didn’t just leave for more money. They sought competitive disassociation from the bottom of the Mountain West in both football and basketball because strength-of-schedule plays a vital role in College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament access.
Current WCC
Average NET: 138.2
Top 50 teams: Gonzaga (6) and Saint Mary’s (30)
No. 200 or worse: Oregon State (212), San Diego (217), Portland (229) and Pepperdine (281)
Comment: Santa Clara’s improvement (51) helps, but there’s only so much ground to gain when one-third of the membership is below 200. The mess in Malibu is something to behold.
New Mountain West
Average NET: 160.6
Top 50 teams: New Mexico (41)
200 or worse: San Jose State (248), UTEP (277) and Air Force (332)
Comment: Don’t forget, the restructured conference will include Hawaii (94) and UC Davis (177), in addition to UTEP, as basketball-playing members. And Grand Canyon (100) began play this season.
New WCC
Average NET: 163.8
Top 50 teams: Saint Mary’s (30)
200 or worse: San Diego (217), Portland (229), Denver (244) and Pepperdine (281)
Comment: We have included UC San Diego, a quality addition that joins the WCC in 2027-28. The Toreros, who reached the NCAAs last season as the Big West champion, are No. 101 in the NET.
The demise of the Pac-12 had major implications for the sport across the region, creating a secondary realignment wave that touched the Mountain West, WCC, Big West, Big Sky and even the WAC.
Nobody will emerge stronger, but the deterioration within any single conference could be mitigated if just a handful of schools improve their on-court product. (The NET rankings rely on the multiplier effect: the higher your floor, the higher your ceiling.)
That’s a major challenge, of course, because financial pressures are rising faster than revenues in many cases and the transfer portal allows for an unprecedented upflow of talent.
The new landscape won’t gain full clarity for several seasons, but there’s always room for sneak peeks. We’ll revisit the situation when the regular season comes to a close.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (17-1)
Result: beat Santa Clara 89-77
NET ranking: No. 6
Comment: The Zags will spend Thursday in Pullman and Saturday in Seattle, an in-state double-dip that seems a tad more challenging now than it did when the season began. (Previous: 1)
2. Utah State (14-1)
Result: won at Air Force 99-62 and Boise State 93-68
NET ranking: No. 13
Comment: The Aggies aren’t the only team in the top 25 of the NET rankings that lacks a Quadrant I win: Iowa and Georgia are in the same position. The counterweight on their resume is the impressively limited number (three) of Quadrant IV, or cupcake, victories. (Previous: 3)
3. San Diego State (11-4)
Result: won at Nevada 73-68, beat Fresno State 71-52
NET ranking: No. 65
Comment: Aggies or Aztecs, Aztecs or Aggies — the teams are effectively interchangeable in our power rankings until Jan. 31, when SDSU visits Logan. (Previous: 2)
4. Boise State (9-7)
Result: lost to Grand Canyon 75-58 and Utah State 93-68
NET ranking: No. 80
Comment: The triple-overtime loss at San Diego State on Jan. 3 turned into a triple whammy for the Broncos, who clearly did not recover emotionally in time for a difficult week. (Previous: 4)
5. Washington State (8-10)
Result: lost at Saint Mary’s 88-82
NET ranking: No. 147
Comment: The six-point loss in Moraga arguably qualifies as WSU’s best result of the season. The Cougars have no quality wins on their resume, and Saint Mary’s owns a better NET ranking than USC, Washington or Arizona State. (Previous: 6)
6. Colorado State (11-5)
Result: lost to New Mexico 80-70, beat UNLV 70-62
NET ranking: No. 85
Comment: The Rams have dropped three of their last five after the 9-2 start, which included a victory over Colorado. The softest stretch of the schedule comes in mid-February. They need to avoid an extended downturn before that point. (Previous: 5)
7. Oregon State (9-10)
Result: beat Seattle 68-55, lost at Portland 82-76
NET ranking: No. 212
Comment: The Beavers better handle LMU and Pacific this week (in Corvallis). Once the back half of January arrives, the schedule turns difficult, to the point that OSU might only win two or three of its final 10 games. (Previous: 7)
8. Fresno State (7-9)
Result: won at San Jose State 70-55, lost at San Diego State 71-52
NET ranking: No. 162
Comment: The Bulldogs play SJSU at home and have two dates with Air Force down the stretch, so the floor for Mountain West victories seemingly is four, which would double last year’s total. (Previous: 9)
9. Texas State (9-9)
Result: lost at Southern Miss 80-70 and Arkansas State 83-82
NET ranking: No. 266
Comment: It could be worse for the Bobcats, who are 2-4 in the Sun Belt, after an unholy stretch in which they played four consecutive conference road games. (Previous: 8)
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