Japan’s Iron Lady: Poised To Steer Japan’s Future To Greater Height – Analysis
In the snap poll held in Japan on 8 February for the Lower House of Diet, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) scored a landslide victory. This win is the biggest supermajority in Japan’s post-War history. The centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, a former Prime Minister, humbly accepted the defeat and said it was worthy of “a thousand deaths”. The party vaulted from 198 seats before the election to more than 300, and finally secured 316 seats out of a total of 465 Lower House seats. This meant the ruling LDP obtained not only above a straight majority but also past the two-thirds supermajority threshold (310 seats). This overwhelming mandate sent the LDP to its most resounding Lower House election victory since its founding in 1955.
This verdict provides the LDP with a double-edged sword, implying thereby that the government can now enjoy the power to override bills even if the Upper House rejects them. Put simply, if a bill is passed in the Lower House but rejected by the Upper House, the LDP can have it ultimately passed again in the Lower House. The super majority will also allow the party to secure the chair positions and a majority of members on all Lower House standing committees.
With supermajority now, Takaichi shall now feel emboldened to initiate proposal for constitutional revision, a dream project her former boss Abe Shinzo could not achieve. Though that process to amend the much talked Article 9 of the pacifist Constitution still would remain complicated, at least a beginning can now be made.
What is remarkable in the election outcome can be measured in terms of its historical standards. Even past popular LDP Prime Ministers Yasuhiro Nakasone and Shinzo Abe never could secure 316 seats which Takaichi now got, making the most dominant outcome during the post-War history. In the past, the victory margins of Takaichi’s illustrious predecessors were modest. During their times, Nakasone had won 300 seats in 1986, Hayato Ikeda 296 in 1960, Junichiro Koizumi also 296 in 2005, and Abe won 294 during his first administration in 2012. With 316 seats now, Takaichi has now broken all past records.
Before this election, the LDP held 198 seats while its coalition partner, Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), had 34 for a total of 232 seats. Takaichi dissolved the Lower House in January 2026 and called the election while her support ratings were high to over 70 per cent. Although some pundits said her move was a gamble, it clearly paid off for Takaichi in securing a stable governing foundation.
The election outcome left the opposition in shambles, particularly the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (Chudo or CRA), which suffered a humiliating defeat. The Lower House will now feature a “one strong, many weak” Diet, where the LDP holds overwhelming dominance, reminiscent of the second Abe administration. The CRA formed through the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito (former alliance partner of the LDP until it walked away from the coalition in 2025 over policy differences) was a rout. The CRA entered the election with 167 seats but fell short of 50. Even senior figures like Katsuya Okada, Yukio Edano, Jun Azumi, and long-timer Ichiro Ozawa faced crushing defeats and lost their single-seat district races. Bearing primary responsibility, Nodo remarked “I deserve to die a thousand deaths”. That was indeed humbling.
What led to this overwhelming victory for Takaichi? First: Takaichi’s immense personal popularity. The second was the opposition’s failure on many fronts, including the CDP and Komeito’s decisions to disband their parties and form a new one immediately preceding the election. This indirectly helped the smaller parties to make incremental gains. For example, Sanseito increased its pre-election tally of 2 to 13 seats and Tomorrow Party of Japan surged into the Lower House with 11 seats, securing representation there for the first time. Also, LDP-coalition partners Ishin no Kai, as well as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), added small gains to their pre-election levels. Ishin picked up two seats while the DPP added one. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party won no seats.
Various political parties had a number of issues on the platform based on which these parties sought voters’ cooperation. For example, on the issue of tax on food, most parties proposed reducing the consumption tax on food item to zero for at least a few years’ time. The LDP and its Ishin coalition partner proposed an initial two-year term to measure the impact on the overall economy. With a two-third majority in the Lower House now, this could be a reality very soon.
Takaichi has a challenge of different kind ahead. She needs to care that LDP’s junior coalition partner Ishin need not feel marginalised in the weight of LDP’s overwhelming presence. Takaichi needs to remain alert that the power balance within the ruling coalition could also shift, with Nippon Ishin’s power diminishing with the LDP’s gains. Takaichi needs to remain sensitive to this possibility and need not give the impression of dominating Ishin on all policy issues. The future stability of the government needs to be kept in mind always in LDP’s policy framework.
The most important issue on Takaichi’s priority has been to achieve constitutional reform. In fact, since the days of Abe Shinzo, this has remained the LDP’s core principle to achieve. Constitutional reform was an agreed goal of the LDP-Ishin coalition formation after Komeito walked out. Takaichi is now confident that the Diet’s Commission on the Constitution would be able to "properly deliberate concrete proposals." This needs to be kept in mind that the process of amending an Article of the Constitution in Japan is too complicated and there could be severe roadblocks to realise this. The detail of doing this is a subject matter that requires in-depth explanation and reserved for another piece later. The redeeming fact is that the ground is fertile now to start the debate to realise the LDP’s core principle on constitutional reform.
Defence of Japan issue has also gained traction in Japan. Earlier, Japanese peoples were either indifferent or unconcerned in the issue of defence of the country. In particular, the younger generation were least bothered as they were more immersed in material comforts that the economy has provided for them. That has changed as there is a growing awareness of the impending threats from China and North Korea. Moreover, Japan’s relation with Russia over the Northern Island issue remains unresolved. The increasing bonhomie between Russia, China and North Korea has unnerved Japanese people. As a result, many voters put priority on security issue, which only helped the LDP. Because of the security dimension of the strategically Okinawa, the LDP was able to grab all four Lower House seats there. Both Takaichi and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi prioritised the new National Defense Strategy in their campaign speeches and the voters were awakened to the issue that national security is of paramount importance that needs to be supported.
On the issue of economy, the LDP-Ishin coalition plan a shift to more inflation-responsive policy by revising income-tax deductions to reflect price rises. To do this, the coalition government aims to introduce a refundable tax credit and create a new government efficiency bureau to review and scrap low-impact tax breaks and large subsidies.
On the question of social security, the people would expect a better balance between the tax burden on working-age families and social services that supports previous working generations. At the time of coalition formation, both LDP and Ishin no Kai had an agreement on most of the above-mentioned issues. Some of these were also endorsed by opposition parties such as DPP and Sanseito. With the massive mandate, people would expect that Takaichi government would deliver on these to peoples’ expectations.
Cooperation with Opposing Voices
When Takaichi dissolved the Lower House just three months after she took office and called for the snap elections, the election outcome surpassed even her own expectations. Peoples were fed up with the political slush fund scandal and were frustrated over rising prices. The peoples saw Takaichi as someone who can make the corrections. This too meant that the Centrist Reform Alliance led by Noda was incapable to stage any serious challenge. As the elections results revealed, Takaichi enjoyed the numerical dominance but she needs to be sensitive to accommodate dissenting voices from the opposition and not be arrogant because of the numerical dominance. Takaichi can benefit from the collective wisdom of her party members and the opposition leaders in her governance path.
Before the election, Takaichi indicated to expand the coalition by embracing the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). After the election outcome, she does not need votes in the Lower House to pass legislation. But irrespective of the minority status of the DPP, it might be strategically important for Takaichi to embrace the opposition whenever convenient in policy making.
Impact of Takaichi’s victory on the stock exchange
The immediate impact of the LDP’s victory was reflected in the manner Japan’s stock exchange behaved. Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 share index jumped 4.7 per cent after Takaichi’s governing party secured a two-thirds supermajority in the parliamentary election. The market expected that Takaichi would pursue market-friendly policies. Markets across Asia also advanced, with South Korea’s Kospi surging 4.3 per cent and other benchmarks gaining more than 1 per cent.
Congratulations galore
US President Donald Trump was quick to congratulate Takaichi on her coalition’s election win, wishing her great success in passing her Conservative, Peace Through Strength Agenda in a social media post. Trump was impressed that Takaichi is committed to increase military spending aimed at countering China.
Like Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also congratulated Takaichi on her landmark victory in Japan’s House of Representatives elections. Modi remarked that the Special Strategic and Global Partnership between India and Japan plays a vital role in enhancing global peace, stability and prosperity. He expressed confidence that under Takaichi’s able leadership, the India-Japan friendship will continue to reach greater heights. India-Japan relations had scaled greater heights during Abe administration. That process is likely to continue during Takaichi’s administration and scale greater heights. There is unanimity of opinions both in India and Japan that the bilateral ties are anchored in a Special Strategic and Global Partnership and that this partnership plays a key role in regional and global stability.