Will the Gulf Between Walmart and Target Deepen in 2026?

In a deep dive into Placer.ai data provided to the company’s The Anchor, content manager Lila Margalit outlined an emerging gulf in terms of the current fortunes enjoyed by mega-retailers Walmart and Target.

More specifically, Margalit looked at foot traffic, comparable sales, and broad divergences in outcomes pertaining to both Target and Walmart over the past year. Some of the more notable data points included:

• Walmart saw foot traffic in Q4 2025 improve by 2.3% YoY, while Target saw a nearly matching decline of 2%. Further, foot traffic for Target fell in every single month in the second half of last year, except for October.
• Walmart is winning on comp sales growth: Walmart experienced a 4.5% U.S. comp sales growth over the 13-week period closing on Oct. 31, 2025. Further, the blue-and-yellow brand saw a massive 28% YoY comparable sales growth in e-commerce.
• Target saw a glimmer of growth against an overall decline, by contrast: Meanwhile, the red-and-white branded retailer saw a drop of 2.7% in terms of overall comp sales, with a decline of 3.8% in physical comparable sales YoY being slightly mitigated by a silver lining — online comp sales improved by 2.4%.

Recent traffic figures have been encouraging for Walmart, showing particular strength as 2026 began.

Conversely, Target is showing signs of struggling against a trending tide, as the below table outlines.

Weekends Particularly Dangerous for Target as Discretionary Shopping Dips

Speaking to a “core disconnect” for Target — which, as Margalit underscored, is heavily investing in a turnaround effort based on improved merchandise curation and the overall in-store experience — the analysis widened scope, highlighting that weekend traffic data was particularly telling.

“While Walmart posted relatively consistent visit trends across weekdays and weekends in 2025, reinforcing the resilience of its essentials-driven model, Target experienced a much steeper YoY decline on weekends,” Margalit wrote.

“Because weekends likely capture more browsing-oriented, discretionary trips at Target, the disproportionate weakness during these periods may highlight where the retailer is most exposed,” she added.

Walmart saw full-year visits improve by 0.8% on weekdays for full-year 2025, and weekend traffic dipped by 0.6%. Target, on the other hand, saw weekdays visits tumble by 1.3% — and weekend visits crumble by a significant 6.1%.

Rumblings From Wall Street Show Signs of a Lack of Faith in Target Coming From the Investor Set

And now, with both retailers poised to deliver performance reports (Walmart issues its Q4 2026 earnings of Feb. 19, with Target releasing its annual report a few weeks later), it appears Wall Street is already issuing something of a verdict on its faith in Target’s future performance.

Per Forbes contributor Greg Petro, it appears that many Wall Street analysts may have “thrown in the towel” on Target. Despite a still-strong dividend rate and a well-aimed turnaround plan under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, investors remained spooked: Just three of 22 analysts by Tipranks rate the stock a “buy,” and nearly half have put forth a “sell” rating — well down from the half (of 33 total) investors who rated Target a buy, and the other half a hold, a year ago.

Several major gaffes — from the 10-4 policy to lacking service standards, poor merchandising and service standards, and haphazard private label assortment — have contributed to a growing unease over Target’s 2026.

“I used to love walking into Target and roaming the aisles for interesting finds. Back then, my local Target store was filled with neatly stocked shelves and inventory that was easy to navigate,” TheStreet’s Maurie Backman wrote earlier this month.

“These days, shopping at Target is more of a chore than anything else. In fact, the only reason I’ll set foot in Target now is to buy clothing for my kids or pick up an item I know I can’t find elsewhere. The days of browsing Target’s inventory for fun are long gone. And this isn’t just my experience. A lot of people who used to adore Target are now, in a word, haters,” she concluded.