Nancy Guthrie Update Today: Expert Shares Chilling New Theory on Case

It's creeping incredibly close to a whole month since Nancy Guthrie disappeared from her Tucson home with endless leads, yet endless questions, and no resolution. And now, a former law enforcement expert who has been following the case closely is offering the most devastating assessment yet.

"Sadly, my assessment is that Nancy likely died within the first 72 hours and will ultimately be recovered," Michael Gould, a former Nassau County lieutenant and founder of the NYPD's canine unit, told The Mirror US exclusively.

What the Expert Believes Happened

Gould, who previously estimated there was an "under 10% chance" Nancy Guthrie was still alive, has now gone further — offering a rough timeline for when she may have passed. His reasoning centers on a detail that has haunted the case from the beginning: Nancy's health.

The 84-year-old required daily medication for an undisclosed heart condition. According to reporting, going without those pills for more than 24 hours could be fatal. Gould didn't mince words about what that means after 30 days. "Nancy was elderly, in poor health, and required life-sustaining medication," he said. "It has now been nearly a month."

That medical reality, combined with the apparent stalling of leads and the FBI's wind-down of on-site activity, has led Gould to conclude that the investigation has crossed a painful threshold. This is no longer, in his assessment, a rescue mission. "Recovery doesn't bring closure," he said. "It simply removes the uncertainty of not knowing where she is."

Perhaps the most chilling element of Gould's assessment is his theory about where Nancy Guthrie will ultimately be found. Drawing on historical patterns in abduction cases, he told The Mirror US, "Historically, victims of abductions are frequently found in relatively close proximity — two to five miles. Nancy's body will likely be found within a few miles of her home."

That assessment aligns with what investigators have already been doing on the ground. Search teams have been combing the Catalina Foothills area surrounding her Tucson property since the earliest days of the investigation. The Madres Buscadoras de Sonora, a Mexican volunteer search group with an extensive track record of finding remains others have missed, traveled to Arizona specifically to assist — before being denied access by the Pima County Sheriff's Department.

Interpreting Savannah's Plea

Gould also weighed in on the emotional video Savannah Guthrie shared Tuesday, in which she announced a $1 million family reward and acknowledged — for the first time publicly — that her mother "may already be gone."

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To Gould, the shift in tone wasn't coincidental. "The reward reflects the reality that investigators are likely running out of credible leads and that the family has, heartbreakingly, accepted that Nancy may be deceased," he said.

He was equally direct about the broader emotional arc of the case. "Hope and prayer are human and necessary — but facts matter. At some point, families are forced to reconcile hope with evidence. That shift in tone reflects acceptance of the facts, not a loss of love or effort."