Futures Market Misreads the Hormuz Oil Shock

The oil futures paper market is likely underestimating the massive supply disruption that a closed Strait of Hormuz is creating in physical crude and fuel supply globally. Crude futures prices briefly spiked early this week to $119 per barrel, before retreating to the $90s and trading at $100 a barrel early on Friday in Asian trade. However, the premium of physical Dubai crude has surged to $38 per barrel over its paper equivalent, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. The wide gap between paper and physical prices suggests…