Marcos Jr.’s China Reset: Friendship As Strategic Anchor Amidst US-Iran War – Analysis

The war between the United States and Iran has thrown the global order into deep turmoil. Energy markets are rattled, alliances are strained, and Washington’s military bandwidth is stretched thin. 

For the Philippines, this conflict is a sobering reminder of the dangers of overdependence on distant powers whose priorities can shift overnight. In this volatile environment, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s recalibration of relations with China—a “reset” grounded in friendship—is not just desirable. It is utterly indispensable.

A Legacy of Engagement

When Ferdinand Marcos Sr. established diplomatic relations with China in 1975, he did so with a vision of anchoring the Philippines in Asia’s future. Half a century later, his son presided over the 50th anniversary of those ties in 2025, invoking continuity and stability. The symbolism was clear: friendship with China should not be a passing policy but a generational commitment.

This legacy has been tested. From the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff to the 2016 arbitration ruling, the Philippines has experienced the sharp edges of maritime disputes. More recently, confrontations at Ayungin Shoal in 2024 reminded us that sovereignty remains a live issue. 

It is not too late for Marcos Jr. to choose not to let these disputes define the overall state of Philippines-China relations. He still has time to repair damaged political ties through dialogue, confidence-building, and cooperative mechanisms—while pursuing friendship in various domains.

Friendship as Strategic Necessity

Despite disputes at sea, China remains as the Philippines’ largest trading partner, a vital source of investment, and a neighbor with whom we share centuries of cultural and economic ties. Pursuing friendship with China allows the Philippines to harness opportunities for development. Joint infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can modernize the Philippines’ transport networks. Renewable energy cooperation can help meet climate goals. Agricultural partnerships can strengthen food security. Cultural exchanges—student scholarships, tourism initiatives, and heritage programs—can deepen mutual understanding and soften  Filipino public skepticism towards China.

Friendship with China does not mean surrendering Philippine sovereignty. It means building a relationship that can withstand disputes, anchored in mutual respect and shared interests. It means recognizing that confrontation alone will not serve Philippine national interest. Friendship offers a viable path to peaceful coexistence, even amid disagreements.

The U.S.–Iran War and Its Lessons

The outbreak of war between Washington and Tehran has consumed American attention. U.S. forces are heavily committed in the Middle East, raising questions about the sustainability of their presence in Asia. 

While the U.S. alliance can remain, the Philippines must hedge against the possibility of diminished American focus. Friendship with China provides that needed hedge. It is not about abandoning the U.S., but about ensuring that future of the Philippines is not hostage to the distractions of distant wars made by a long-time ally.

Marcos Jr.’s China reset can differ from his predecessors. Rodrigo Duterte tilted heavily toward China, often at the expense of U.S. ties by announcing a separation. Benigno Aquino III leaned assertively toward Washington, even pursuing legal action against Beijing. 

Marcos Jr. can seek a middle path: maintaining defense ties with the U.S. while cultivating closer friendship with China. This dual-track approach reflects pragmatism, resilience, and a recognition that survival in a multipolar world requires engaging both giants.  Rather than to be torn between two lovers, the Philippines can get the best of both worlds.

Risks and Opportunities

The risks are real. Maritime incidents continue to test public patience. Domestic skepticism toward China remains strong. And balancing U.S. expectations with Beijing’s sensitivities requires deft diplomacy. But the alternative—choosing confrontation over friendship—would leave the Philippines vulnerable, isolated, and perpetually reactive to the agendas of others.

The opportunities, however, are equally real. Friendship with China can deliver economic growth, cultural enrichment, and regional stability. It can provide the Philippines with the strategic space to maneuver in a world destabilized by wars far beyond its shores.

Toward ASEAN Solidarity

The Philippines cannot walk this path alone. Friendship with China must be pursued in concert with ASEAN neighbors, who face similar dilemmas of balancing sovereignty with cooperation. A collective approach—anchored in dialogue, regional mechanisms, and shared development projects—can transform the South China Sea from a theater of rivalry into a sea of friendship. ASEAN solidarity, built on the principle of engaging neighbors rather than confronting them, is the best guarantee of peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia.

Conclusion

Marcos Jr.’s China reset is, at its core, a pursuit of friendship. And friendship, in these uncertain times, is the most strategic choice the Philippines can make. It is not about choosing sides. It is about choosing survival. In a world on fire, friendship with China—and solidarity with ASEAN—are solid anchors. 

If Marcos Jr.’s China reset succeeds, the South China Sea can become not a wall of division, but a bridge of friendship—linking nations, fostering cooperation, and proving that even in the midst of US-Iran war, peace can be built by neighbors who choose dialogue over discord.