What lies ahead for Switzerland: an economic outlook for 2026

Next year the Swiss economy will face downward pressure from weaker domestic demand and ongoing uncertainty related to US import tariffs. The Swiss economy remained stable in 2025 with wage growth and domestic demand offsetting the negative impact of the tariffs imposed on Swiss exports to the United States. Domestic demand is expected to grow 1.4% in 2025 and the unemployment rate to reach 2.9%. Real wages rose by 0.7% in 2024 and the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has said growth should continue in 2025. Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 1.3-1.4% in 2025 in line with analysts’ forecasts. This is despite uncertainties linked to announcements in April by the Trump administration to tax Swiss imports into the United States by 39%; much higher than those planned on European goods. In November, Switzerland inked a deal to reduce the headline figure to 15%, in line with its neighbours. It has yet to be implemented but will offer some relief to the watch and ...