Armenia's Central Bank expects the economy to grow by 6.5-5.8% in 2024

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YEREVAN, September 12. /ARКА/. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economic growth in 2024 to be between 6.5% and 5.8%, according to the regulator's report on monetary policy for the third quarter of this year./pp

Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan previously announced the launch of a new second-generation monetary policy analysis and forecasting system (FPAS Mark II) in 2024. Thus, in its forecasts, the Central Bank relies on two scenarios: in the first scenario (A), the regulator's inflation forecasts are higher than those of market participants, and in the second scenario (B), they are lower./pp

Thus, in scenario A, Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 6.5%, and in scenario B - at 5.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 5.9% and 3.7%, for 2026 - 5.5% and 5.5% respectively, and for 2027 - 5.4% and 5.5%, respectively./pp

This year, the industrial sector is expected to grow by 4.7% in Scenario A and 4.5% in Scenario B, agriculture - by 3.7% in both scenarios, construction sector- by 14.5% and 13.7%, services - by 6.7% and 6.5%, and net taxes - by 1.1% and 0.6% respectively./pp

Scenario A assumes inflation in Armenia at 2.1% by the end of this year, and Scenario B - at 2%. The forecast for 2025 is 4-3.2%, for 2026 - 4.2-3.8%, and for 2027 - 4% in both scenarios.nbsp;/pp

The economic growth of Armenia in the state budget for 2024 is envisaged at 7%.nbsp; According to preliminary official statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 6.4% and amounted to about 2.3 trillion drams in the second quarter of 2024.-0-/pp nbsp;/p