UK names germanium, gallium among top 10 critical minerals for 2024

The UK’s 2024 critical minerals assessment reflects growing concerns over supply security and geopolitical risks, particularly as China tightens control over key materials essential for clean energy and defence technologies.

The assessment evaluated 82 raw materials – compared with 26 in 2021 – and identified 34 critical minerals in total, including 17 new additions.

Several minor metals maintained their critical status from the 2021 assessment, including bismuth, gallium, indium, magnesium, silicon and tellurium. The designation of these metals as critical aligns with similar assessments by other major economies.

Gallium, germanium, bismuth and magnesium were identified as critical by the UK, EU, US, Canada and Australia, accentuating the global competition to secure supplies of these materials.

Silicon was deemed critical by the UK, EU and Australia in their 2024 assessments, while tellurium was classified as critical by the UK, US, Canada and Australia, but not by the EU in its 2024 review.

Fastmarkets’ assessed weekly price for silicon grade 4-4-1 99% Si min, in-whs Rotterdam was €2,030-2,240 ($2,146-2,368) per tonne on November 29, marking three consecutive weeks of decline since November 8, when it was assessed at €2,100-2,300 per tonne.

Meanwhile, the assessed price for silicon grade 5-5-3 98.5% Si min, in-whs Rotterdam was €1,930-2,150 per tonne on November 29, down by 2.39% from €1,980-2,200 per tonne on November 22.

“Overcapacity, particularly in China, and elevated exports from that source continue to weigh on the market,” Emre Uzun, Fastmarkets ferro alloys and steel analyst, said. “Downside potential appears to be limited amid higher production with the onset of the dry season in China and an increase in European energy costs.”

Notably, while chromium has been designated as critical by the US, Canada and Australia since 2022, it remains non-critical in both the UK and EU assessments.

Fastmarkets assessed chromium alumino-thermic 99% min, in-whs Rotterdam at $9,100-11,500 per tonne on November 29, unchanged since November 8.

Supply chain challenges

The critical minerals assessment highlights significant supply chain vulnerabilities for the UK. According to the CMIC, the country has no domestic production of gallium, germanium, indium, silicon metal or tellurium, making it entirely reliant on imports. This dependency is particularly concerning given China’s dominant position in refining these materials.

Trade regulations, such as China’s export controls on gallium and germanium, have demonstrated the potential for supply chain disruption.

The recently published Dual-Use Items Export Control List of the People’s Republic of China, effective December 1, consolidates controlled items like gallium and germanium under a unified system, but does not expand the scope of controls. The process for exporting these materials remains lengthy, sometimes taking up to six months, further underscoring the risks of dependency.

While these measures have stimulated innovation and efforts to develop alternative sources, they have also highlighted the UK’s vulnerability to supply restrictions.

Export restrictions create uncertainty

China’s export restrictions on gallium and germanium, implemented in August 2023, have significantly impacted global supply chains, with prices for both metals showing substantial increases since the regulations were announced.

Fastmarkets assessed gallium 99.99% Ga min, in-whs Rotterdam at $470-550 per kg on November 29, unchanged since November 8. Prior to China’s export licensing requirements, gallium was assessed 43-47% lower at $250-265 per kg on June 30, 2023.

The assessed price for germanium 99.999% Ge, in-whs Rotterdam was $2,850-3,000 per kg on November 29, flat since November 15. This represents a sharp increase of 111-114% from pre-restriction levels of $1,350-1,400 per kg in July 2023.

The regulations have created uncertainty in both markets, with participants reporting unusual market conditions for the time of year.

“Strange… normally this time of year the germanium metal market is very active, but doesn’t seem so,” a Chinese producer told Fastmarkets.

Market participants reported mixed signals in the gallium market.

“A lot of market insiders think the price is still on a downward trajectory… It’s still severely oversupplied and very difficult to generate buying interests,” a second Chinese producer said.

“Seems to me that bears and bulls are currently fighting in these markets,” a European trader said. “All are preparing for end of year… I have seen it in gallium specifically.”

The supply situation remains particularly concentrated, with China controlling 94.9% of refined gallium production and 92.2% of refined germanium production globally.

UK policy prioritizes supply security

The UK government’s industrial strategy, currently under consultation, has identified eight key sectors for growth, including advanced manufacturing, clean energy industries, defence and digital technologies – all of which rely heavily on critical minerals.

According to the critical minerals assessment, the country’s commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is driving increased demand for these materials.

Recent initiatives include £200 million ($254.54 million) invested in decarbonizing freight vehicles and a target for 80% of car sales to be electric by 2030.

Strategic applications drive critical status

The designation of these metals as critical reflects their role in strategic technologies and industries.

Germanium is crucial for infrared optics, optical fibers and satellite solar cells, while also being used in solid-state electronics and semiconductors.

Gallium plays a vital role in integrated circuits, optoelectronics and sensors, particularly in the manufacture of semiconductors and fiber optic systems.

Other critical metals serve equally important functions, with magnesium finding applications in transportation, packaging and construction, particularly in products requiring lightweight properties.

Silicon remains fundamental to digital technologies and semiconductors, while tellurium is essential for solar power and electronic components.

The critical minerals assessment recommends regular reassessment of critical minerals’ status, with a comprehensive update suggested for 2027.

The report also calls for further research into midstream and manufacturing sectors, particularly recycling, and advocates for building international trade partnerships to reduce the risks associated with trade barriers.

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