Rating agencies' negative outlooks have affected Armenia’s investment attractiveness
YEREVAN, September 23. /ARKA/. Tatul Manaseryan, an economist and the head of Alternative Research Center, thinks international rating agencies' negative outlooks have played a significant part in the reduction of investment into Armenia.
«Expectations are very important not only to the population, but also for businesses,» he said. «In this connection I would like to say that international organizations and so-called established rating agencies did more harm than good to Armenia’s economy,» he told journalists on Wednesday.
The economist said that in November-December 2014 his forecasts contradicted rating agencies' outlooks, which predicted an economic decline to Armenia.
«And these are not mere words – if 'decline' is mentioned, this word breeds negative skepticism, the future seems obscure and murky and investors grow cautious,» he said. «Fortunately, our forecasts have proven to be correct. Although the year has not come to an end yet, I am calling for optimism.»
Manaseryan said that even without this adverse impact of skeptical outlooks on the investment inflow, attractiveness of Armenia's economy is not high.
«We have failed to form a GDP structure that could be diversified and attractive not only for Armenian communities overseas and for a strategic ally that has its political motives, but also for any other entrepreneur,» he said.
Many international financial organizations lowered their outlooks for economic growth in Armenia in 2015.
According to the latest reports, the World Bank predicts 0.8% economic growth, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts 3.8%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects stagnation, the International Monetary Fund a zero growth and Asian Development Bank a 1.2% growth.
Fitch agency expects a mild recession triggered by deterioration in things in Russia and Moody's forecasts a 2.3% growth.
In its latest report, the Central Bank of Armenia improved its forecast saying GDP growth in Armenia is believed to stand between 2.1% and 2.5% in 2015.
In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth is projected at 4.1% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%). ----0-----
«Expectations are very important not only to the population, but also for businesses,» he said. «In this connection I would like to say that international organizations and so-called established rating agencies did more harm than good to Armenia’s economy,» he told journalists on Wednesday.
The economist said that in November-December 2014 his forecasts contradicted rating agencies' outlooks, which predicted an economic decline to Armenia.
«And these are not mere words – if 'decline' is mentioned, this word breeds negative skepticism, the future seems obscure and murky and investors grow cautious,» he said. «Fortunately, our forecasts have proven to be correct. Although the year has not come to an end yet, I am calling for optimism.»
Manaseryan said that even without this adverse impact of skeptical outlooks on the investment inflow, attractiveness of Armenia's economy is not high.
«We have failed to form a GDP structure that could be diversified and attractive not only for Armenian communities overseas and for a strategic ally that has its political motives, but also for any other entrepreneur,» he said.
Many international financial organizations lowered their outlooks for economic growth in Armenia in 2015.
According to the latest reports, the World Bank predicts 0.8% economic growth, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts 3.8%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects stagnation, the International Monetary Fund a zero growth and Asian Development Bank a 1.2% growth.
Fitch agency expects a mild recession triggered by deterioration in things in Russia and Moody's forecasts a 2.3% growth.
In its latest report, the Central Bank of Armenia improved its forecast saying GDP growth in Armenia is believed to stand between 2.1% and 2.5% in 2015.
In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth is projected at 4.1% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%). ----0-----