Hong Kong Demonstrations Live By War Correspondent Michael Yon
Hong Kong on fire but only in isolated instances, not island wide as mainstream reports. War correspondent/photographer and security analyst Michael Yon updates us as he sees and captures it.
My Hong Kong Coverage: Message came in this morning:
“Your livecasts are getting as many views as HKFP videos and they have staff of 4 full timers few part-timers and annual budget that comes in @ $250K USD….”
===
I will begin to dominate the local analysis. I always do. The locals have advantage of local knowledge but very few have any experience with what is unfolding.
They understand Hong Kong: I understand Godzilla.
I have spent years with Godzilla in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Nepal (I have written almost nothing about Nepal and likely never will, but I was there), Thailand, Philippines, more.
I know Godzilla. What it eats. Its habits. Cycles.
Millions of people here know Hong Kong.
Those who know Godzilla and have first hand experience and formal training (as I do) who are here, likely would not fill a minivan.
As you know, too, I have written two books on Chinese information war.
Nutshell: current situation in Hong Kong, on the continuum of action:
1) Protest phase is finished. (Still protests daily, but that phase is finished. Simple protest are a thing of the past.)
2) General Civil Unrest: frustration/anger has blown through the roof. Civil unrest is fully involved.
3) We are at the front end of insurgency. On the continuum, this went from: Protests —> Civil Unrest —> Insurgency (all elements still contain protests as a tactic)
At this point, we are in Category 1 Insurgency — to use the Hurricane scale of Cat 1 to Cat 5. What I saw in Iraq was Cat 5, and Afghanistan Cat 5. Nepal Cat 4. Thailand Cat 2.
This is the first tendrils of Cat 1. Which arguably started on about 01 July 2019 with the LegCo break-in. I was there.
On the continuum — nutshell:
Protests = people upset (HK government blew it)
Civil unrest = people upset and taking minor actions, and starting to call the security forces and government illegitimate
Insurgency = Not just calling government illegitimate, but actively working to overthrow the government by attacking its legs such as economy, infrastructure (like the MTR attacks), police and police stations, LegCo, etc.
Hong Kong is definitely at the very front end of an insurgency that is growing quickly.
VERY IMPORTANT: The young, very smart, and courageous people who are defending Hong Kong must refrain from actions that will undermine international support. Doing a good job of this so far, but think, think, think…before making any violent actions or setting any fires. Think… Slow down. You are winning.
The people are very upset. They are very good people. They need international support. Send journalists.
This is what Cat 5 insurgency looks like:
My Hong Kong Coverage: Message came in this morning:
“Your livecasts are getting as many views as HKFP videos and they have staff of 4 full timers few part-timers and annual budget that comes in @ $250K USD….”
===
I will begin to dominate the local analysis. I always do. The locals have advantage of local knowledge but very few have any experience with what is unfolding.
They understand Hong Kong: I understand Godzilla.
I have spent years with Godzilla in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Nepal (I have written almost nothing about Nepal and likely never will, but I was there), Thailand, Philippines, more.
I know Godzilla. What it eats. Its habits. Cycles.
Millions of people here know Hong Kong.
Those who know Godzilla and have first hand experience and formal training (as I do) who are here, likely would not fill a minivan.
As you know, too, I have written two books on Chinese information war.
Nutshell: current situation in Hong Kong, on the continuum of action:
1) Protest phase is finished. (Still protests daily, but that phase is finished. Simple protest are a thing of the past.)
2) General Civil Unrest: frustration/anger has blown through the roof. Civil unrest is fully involved.
3) We are at the front end of insurgency. On the continuum, this went from: Protests —> Civil Unrest —> Insurgency (all elements still contain protests as a tactic)
At this point, we are in Category 1 Insurgency — to use the Hurricane scale of Cat 1 to Cat 5. What I saw in Iraq was Cat 5, and Afghanistan Cat 5. Nepal Cat 4. Thailand Cat 2.
This is the first tendrils of Cat 1. Which arguably started on about 01 July 2019 with the LegCo break-in. I was there.
On the continuum — nutshell:
Protests = people upset (HK government blew it)
Civil unrest = people upset and taking minor actions, and starting to call the security forces and government illegitimate
Insurgency = Not just calling government illegitimate, but actively working to overthrow the government by attacking its legs such as economy, infrastructure (like the MTR attacks), police and police stations, LegCo, etc.
Hong Kong is definitely at the very front end of an insurgency that is growing quickly.
VERY IMPORTANT: The young, very smart, and courageous people who are defending Hong Kong must refrain from actions that will undermine international support. Doing a good job of this so far, but think, think, think…before making any violent actions or setting any fires. Think… Slow down. You are winning.
The people are very upset. They are very good people. They need international support. Send journalists.
Live Map of Hong Kong Protests/Actions
Hong Kongers never rest. They just keep coming up with new ways to fight faster than anyone can keep up.
Now they are running a website that one would more likely see in a military headquarters.
Unfortunately, Hong Kongers write in a strange stick language that I do not understand when written in sticks, or in speaking.
I would like to see a map like this with historical actions since the beginning, about 13 weeks ago. It would blow your mind. At least hundreds of serious actions. At least in hundreds — I alone have been to more than 40.
I would not be surprised if there have been 300 separate actions in past 13 weeks that would deserve a place on the map. Such a time-lapse map that shows locations and magnitudes would allow the world to see how serious this is.
This is the active map now. Notice the ongoing action in Mongkok:
This is what Cat 5 insurgency looks like: