10,000 ISIL fighters in Iraq, Syria regroup, with increasing activity in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, and globally

Our discussions during the Virtual Counter-Terrorism Week showed that States need to stay attuned to how the ISIL threat evolves during and after the pandemic. They also emphasized the need to sustain the focus and resources required to address the persistent threat posed by ISIL and the continuing challenges posed by foreign terrorist fighters.

Since the start of the year, we have seen contrasting regional disparities in the threat trajectory. In conflict zones, the threat has increased, as evidenced by ISIL’s regrouping and increasing activity in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, and among some of its regional affiliates.

Yet, there is a continued trend of attacks by individuals inspired online and acting alone or in small groups, which could be fueled by ISIL’s opportunistic propaganda efforts during the COVID-19 crisis.

Meanwhile, there is no clear indication of a change in ISIL’s strategic direction under its new leader. Command and control arrangements between the ISIL core and its remote “provinces” have continued to loosen, thereby strengthening regional affiliates.

In the Middle East, the ISIL core has continued to consolidate its position in some areas previously under its control, operating increasingly confidently and openly. More than 10,000 ISIL fighters are estimated to remain active in Iraq and Syria, moving freely in small cells between the two countries. There has been a significant increase in ISIL attacks in both countries in 2020 compared to 2019.

The COVID-19 crisis has further complicated the already dire and unsustainable situation of thousands of individuals with suspected links to ISIL who are stranded in the conflict zone, especially women and children. Repatriation, prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration and the protection of the vulnerable have become ever more urgent. While some states have repatriated and continue to repatriate children, we have seen only limited progress in overcoming legal, political, and practical hurdles to repatriation.

The global threat from ISIL is likely to increase if the international community fails to meet this challenge. Decisive action is required from Member States on humanitarian, human rights, and security grounds. The Secretary-General reiterates his call on Member States to meet their obligations under international law and repatriate their nationals — women, men, and children. The United Nations system stands ready to support their efforts in this regard.

Turning to Africa, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) remains a major focus of ISIL global propaganda, and its total membership of approximately 3,500 makes it one of the largest of the remote “provinces”. ISWAP continued to reinforce links with the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), which remains the most dangerous group in the tri-border area of Burkina Faso, Mali, and the Niger.

Although ISIL has only a few hundred fighters in Libya, it has been exploiting local tensions between ethnic groups. It represents a potent threat capable of broader regional impact. The risk of escalation of the conflict in Libya could allow ISIL to expand its activity.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in Mozambique, including complex attacks and brief takeovers of villages.

In Europe, the threat continues to come mainly from Internet-driven, homegrown terrorist radicalization. Three ISIL-inspired attacks occurred in France and two in the United Kingdom during the reporting period, while other attacks by lone actors against soft public targets were thankfully foiled. Acute concerns persist about radicalization and failed rehabilitation in prisons, and the imminent release of dangerous inmates with a terrorist background or connections.

Several Member States in Europe report a growing terrorist threat from “right-wing violent extremism”, which requires intelligence services to shift their operational and analytical priorities away from a focus on ISIL.

In Asia, ISIL’s affiliate in Afghanistan remains capable of high-profile attacks in various parts of the country, including Kabul, despite continued territorial losses and the arrest of its leaders. The group seeks to use Afghan territory to spread its influence across the region, similar to the approach of ISIL’s core. It also aims to attract fighters who oppose inter alia the peace agreement reached between the Taliban and the United States.

In other parts of Asia, ISIL claimed its first attack in the Maldives in April. Concern remains over the recruitment of ISIL fighters in the country and the looming challenge of managing returnees from the core conflict zone. In South-East Asia, attacks on security forces occur regularly, but government authorities have maintained pressure on ISIL activities through counter-terrorism operations.

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