Kazakhstan Shuts Down Dissent Ahead of Nuclear Referendum

The people of Kazakhstan will go to the polls on October 6 to decide in a referendum whether the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP) should be built. The issue has deeply divided the public, with opinions strongly polarized. While a heated debate is still ongoing across all layers of society, the government has been actively promoting its pro-nuclear stance, while simultaneously stifling dissenting voices and curbing public discussions that oppose the project.

Two opinion polls on the matter showed that public opinion is slightly in favor of the construction of a NPP. The 2023 Konrad Adenauer Foundation - MediaNet poll estimated a split of 48.6% in favor versus 37.7% opposed, whereas a 2024 survey by the government-backed Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies said 53.1% were in favor and 32.5% were against.

However, the ultimate decision may not truly rest with the Kazakhstani people. Despite President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s assurances of creating a ‘listening state’, public opinion on the NPP has remained largely marginalized and disregarded. Instead, the authorities seem focused on building a façade of a “new socio-political culture” that serves to justify government decisions. Rubber-stamping government policies under the guise of public consultation is insufficient, especially when community meetings appear orchestrated to showcase only pro-NPP arguments.

Despite promises of open discussions, many attendees have complained that expert speakers presented only the benefits of nuclear energy, neglecting to address ecological and political concerns. There were also instances of activists being removed from these meetings.

Widespread Concerns

The 2023 survey highlighted concerns about the construction of a NPP which included: Accidents and radiation risks (47.9%); ecological consequences (31.3%); risks of corruption in construction (7.4%) and increased dependence on Russia (3.2%). Reportedly, companies from four countries (Russia, China, France, and South Korea) are in the running.

During public hearings in August 2024, participants raised concerns that no renewable or ‘clean’ energy alternatives to the NPP were being seriously considered, such as wind, solar, or hydropower. Many also expressed the belief that the decision to build the NPP had already been made, rendering the referendum a mere formality. The lack of a genuine public debate, coupled with Kazakhstan’s history of flawed elections marred by significant procedural irregularities, only heightens these concerns.

In response, activists have formed a group called “No need for a NPP”, to raise awareness about the potential negative impacts of nuclear energy. However, speaking out against the government’s plans comes with risks.

Prosecuted for Speaking out

Activists and citizens who have voiced opposition to the proposed NPP and questioned public support for it have faced punishment. In Semey, activist Yeldos Dossanov was arrested during a public hearing on the NPP and sentenced to 15 days of administrative detention for allegedly failing to comply with police orders. After he was forcibly removed from the meeting room, Dossanov said: “I participated in the public hearings to express my opinion as a citizen of this country and was subjected to various provocations.”

Almaty-based activist Abzal Dostiyarov was fined after posting a YouTube video questioning the NPP referendum. Almaty’s Prosecutor’s office claimed it had identified several cases of both individuals and legal entities allegedly carrying out public opinion polls without complying with the requirements of the Electoral Code.

Another incident in Almaty involved activist Meirkhan Abdumanapov, who was detained seemingly to prevent his participation in NPP hearings. Abdumanapov was detained as he was about to depart for a public hearing in Astana. Abdumanapov also participated in the public hearing in Almaty on the construction of the NPP, after which he said: “There was no public discussion, it was more of an advertisement for the nuclear power project.”

The Ministry of Energy has reportedly filed a complaint with the police against those it accused of making “negative, emotional attacks” on the NPP issue, claiming such criticism threatens Kazakhstan’s development. The Ministry emphasized that this complaint did not target journalists or individual citizens who are publicly against the NPP, but failed to specify who exactly was being targeted.

In a separate incident in Almaty, activists were denied access to a conference hall, after a hotel abruptly refused to host their meeting to discuss the NPP. In addition, during a panel discussion held two days later, journalists noticed the presence of law enforcement officers among the audience.

The right to freedom of peaceful assembly is also being violated. In Ridder, Eastern Kazakhstan, authorities denied permission to hold a rally against the NPP, which was expected to draw up to 100 participants. Similar rejections were also reported in Almaty, Astana, Pavlodar, Petropavlovsk, Uralsk, and Shymkent. In a disturbing development on 29 September, 12 anti-NPP activists were detained in Almaty. Six were later released on bail. The activists could now face serious charges, including attempting to organize mass riots, armed resistance to authorities, and the use of funds from foreign sources to further their cause.

These incidents form part of a broader pattern of severe restrictions of freedom of expression and peaceful assembly in Kazakhstan, as repeatedly documented by the International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) and its partners. The most recent of these findings was included in a report prepared for Kazakhstan’s upcoming UN Universal Periodic Review, in collaboration with the Kazakhstan International Bureau of Human Rights and Rule of Law.

So is This the Listening State?

Sergey Kuratov, head of the environmental organization “Green Salvation” (Зеленое Спасение), told Azattyq that the state-organized public hearings on the planned NPP serve more as a mechanism for citizens to “let off steam”, than as a genuine opportunity to influence decision-making. Ecologist Svetlana Mogilyuk from the public association EKOM agreed.

“We are seeing pressure even at the ministerial level, where instead of objectively and comprehensively assessing risks, the government pushes through controversial decisions,” Mogilyuk said.

In 2000, Kazakhstan ratified the Aarhus Convention, which grants citizens the right to participate in decision-making on major state projects with an environmental impact. The country’s Environmental Code guarantees the right to an environment favorable to human health and life. Additionally, freedom of expression is enshrined in Kazakhstan’s Constitution which also stipulates that “the state shall endeavor to protect the environment for the benefit of human life and health” and that “public officials shall be held accountable in accordance with the law for concealing facts or circumstances that endanger the life and health of the people.”

Given that discussions on the NPP have been neither fully public nor truly inclusive, and civic engagement has faced severe limitations, it is clear that the lead-up to the referendum exposes a significant failure of the so-called “listening state.” Citizens’ rights are being overshadowed by the drive to push forward an expensive and controversial energy project. As Mogilyuk succinctly put it, “They are trying to advance their decisions through repressive methods.”

Alva Omarova is a researcher for International Partnership for Human Rights. IPHR is an independent, non-governmental organization founded in 2008. Based in Brussels, IPHR works closely together with civil society groups from different countries to raise human rights concerns at the international level and promote respect for the rights of vulnerable communities. See more at: https://www.iphronline.org/en/