SI:AM | What’s at Stake in Week 18

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. As good as the Wemby-Giannis matchup was (more on that later), Nikola Jokić had the play of the night with his game-winner against the Warriors.

In today’s SI:AM:

???? Wemby vs. Giannis

???? Future NFL GMs

???? Bedard’s historic All-Star selection

Playoff picture in focus

The final week of the NFL regular season begins tomorrow, and there’s a lot left to be decided before the playoffs begin a week from now.

Only half of the division races have been decided, and there are still 10 teams fighting for five remaining playoff spots. Here are the most important things to watch for as the season wraps up.

The AFC East title game

The most pivotal game of the weekend is the last one, as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. The winner will claim the division title. (The Dolphins can also win the division if the game ends in a tie.) Miami has already clinched a spot in the playoffs, but it’s entirely possible Buffalo can be kept out of the postseason if it doesn’t win Sunday. The Bills can still get into the playoffs with a loss, but it will require plenty of help from other teams. If they lose, they can advance only if one of the following occurs: The Pittsburgh Steelers lose or tie against the Baltimore Ravens, the Jacksonville Jaguars lose or tie against the Tennessee Titans, or the Indianapolis Colts–Houston Texans game ends in a tie. Pittsburgh will be fighting for its playoff life against a Baltimore team that has already locked up the No. 1 seed and will be resting its starters, while Jacksonville also needs to win against a lousy Tennessee team, so the Bills can’t count on getting any help from either them.

Even though the Dolphins know they’ll be playoff-bound, there’s plenty of incentive for them to win this game. If they come out on top, they’ll have the No. 2 seed in the AFC. If they lose, they’ll be the No. 6 seed and have to travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the opening round.

The AFC South deadlock

The Jaguars, Colts and Texans are all 9–7 heading into the final game of the season. Houston and Indianapolis will play each other at 8:15 p.m. ET tomorrow night on ESPN and ABC. The winner of that one will clinch at least a spot in the postseason, although they’ll clinch the division only if Jacksonville also loses to the Titans on Sunday. The Jags only need a victory over Tennessee to clinch the division but need losses by the Steelers and Denver Broncos to make the playoffs as a wild card.

The door is open for the Steelers

Pittsburgh is fortunate to be playing the Ravens’ B-team on Sunday. As long as the Steelers win, they can qualify for the playoffs with a loss by either the Bills or Jaguars. A Steelers win and a tie in the Colts-Texans game also sends Pittsburgh through. There’s even a narrow path to the postseason for the Steelers if they lose. That would require a Jaguars loss to the Titans, a Broncos win over the Las Vegas Raiders and a non-tie in the Colts-Texans game.

Eagles and Cowboys seeding

Last week’s games dramatically changed the outlook in the NFC East as the Philadelphia Eagles suffered a shocking loss at home against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Dallas Cowboys earned a controversial win over the Detroit Lions. Dallas and Philadelphia have identical 11–5 records entering Week 18, but the Cowboys hold the tiebreaker because they have the better record in conference games.

Both teams have relatively easy games Sunday, with the Eagles facing the New York Giants and the Cowboys facing the Washington Commanders. The only way for Philadelphia to win the division is to beat New York and hope Dallas loses to Washington. The Eagles’ recent skid (they’ve lost four of their last five) means they’re likely to be the No. 5 seed and open the postseason on the road against the NFC South winner, while the Cowboys are in position for the No. 2 seed.

The two unclaimed NFC spots

Five of the seven NFC postseason berths have been claimed. The only two remaining are the NFC South and the final wild-card position.

It would be a disaster if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t win the division. All they have to do to clinch is beat the league-worst Carolina Panthers on Sunday. If they somehow lose that game, then the division winner would be the winner of the Atlanta Falcons–New Orleans Saints game (which is being played also at 1 p.m. ET). Atlanta’s only path to the postseason is winning the division, while New Orleans can still get in as a wild card with a loss and losses by the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay is in the driver’s seat to earn the last wild-card spot, needing only a win over the Chicago Bears to get in. There are also five long-shot scenarios in which the Packers can still get in with a loss or tie, depending on how the rest of the games shake out.

A Packers loss would open the door for the Seahawks, who need only a win over the Cardinals and a Green Bay loss to qualify. The team that needs the most help to get in is the Minnesota Vikings, who at 7–9 are technically still alive. They need a win over the Lions and then losses by the Packers, Seahawks and either the Saints or Bucs to secure a playoff spot.

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Here is Albert Breer’s 15th annual list of potential future NFL general managers.
• Conor Orr argues that the Falcons should give coach Arthur Smith one more chance, but with a better quarterback.
• Providence Friars star Bryce Hopkins is out for the year with a torn ACL. Kevin Sweeney has more on what the injury means for the team.
• The Ohio State Buckeyes have found their next starting quarterback through the transfer portal.
• Shaquille O’Neal will be the first Orlando Magic player to have his number retired.
• Chicago Blackhawks phenom Connor Bedard is the youngest player in NHL history to be named to the All-Star team.

The top five...

… plays Victor Wembanyama made last night in his nationally televised showdown with Giannis Antetokounmpo:

5. His fingertip block on a Pat Connaughton three-point attempt.

4. His quick cut that left Giannis in the dust.

3. His pass off the backboard to himself.

2. His behind-the-back move for a dunk.

1. His emphatic block on Giannis in the final minute.

SIQ

The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East with a win Sunday night against the Bills. Who was Miami’s starting quarterback the last time it won the division?

• Dan Marino
• Ryan Tannehill
• Jay Fiedler
• Chad Pennington

Yesterday’s SIQ: Ottawa retained the Stanley Cup on Jan. 4, 1904, by beating an athletic club from Winnipeg that primarily participated in what sport?

• Soccer
• Rugby
• Rowing
• Curling

Answer: Rowing. The Winnipeg Rowing Club was founded in 1881 and is still around today, making it the oldest athletic club in Western Canada, and numerous Canadian Olympic medalists have rowed at the club.

The club also briefly fielded a hockey team, from 1902 to ’06. In ’03, after winning the Manitoba Hockey Association league championship, the club challenged the Ottawa Silver Seven for the Stanley Cup. Ottawa won the first game of the three-game series, 9–2, in what was, according to the Winnipeg Free Press, an exceptionally dirty matchup that left several Winnipeg players injured. The Oarsmen bounced back in the second game but lost the rubber match on Jan. 4, 1904, allowing Ottawa to retain the Cup.