2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open: Best outright bets, daily fantasy plays and more

Who to bet (and fade) for golf's biggest party

Throughout the PGA Tour season, I use statistical modeling to see how each golfer should fit that week’s course by parsing strokes gained data at a granular level before placing bets on outright winners. We’ll use this same data to identify the best DFS plays and fades, finding the guys who score tons of points that very few other players may decide to roster. 

Along the way we’ll let you know when we find some value among prop bets. I’ll be primarily using data and the tools from RickRunGood.com, PGA Tour and Shotlink for this column.

Typically I like to start this column reminiscing on what happened last week with our plays and the happenings on the PGA Tour. Doing so this week will be no fun as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ended early after inclement weather in California.

Wyndham Clark was declared the winner after just 54 holes in a no-cut event (the irony here is rather rich). Our picks from last week, Justin Thomas and Jason Day were lurking inside the Top 5 despite an outrageous 12-under 60 from Clark.

It’s been a tough start to the year but the beauty of golf gambling is that it often only takes one big week to make up for many losers. I suspect that our big break is coming soon.

Let’s dig into it.