Stats and Trends for Super Bowl LVIII Player Props: Quarterbacks
If you’re betting on Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy Sunday, here’s some data to inform your decisions.
Super Bowl LVIII is almost here, as the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. While we still have our fantasy postseason leagues at stake, there’s going to be a ton of wagering on the big game, including player props. With that in mind, I did some research on the stats and trends that you need to know about some of the biggest names and the most popular props that will be played. That includes the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy. Here’s some info you’ll need to know before placing your bets!
Note: Stats include the regular and postseason. Player props from SI Sportsbook.
Super Bowl fantasy player rankings
Patrick Mahomes Props
Passing yards: 260.5
Mahomes has surpassed this total nine times in 19 games (47%) but he has also missed it in four of his last five games. In the one game that he did pass the mark, Mahomes threw for just 262 yards. In those five games, he averaged 239.6 yards.
The 49ers have allowed 261 or more passing yards just seven times. In their last six games, quarterbacks have hit that mark once. In those games, the opposing quarterback has averaged 210.3 passing yards. The lone quarterback to hit the mark was Jared Goff, who threw for 273 yards in the NFC championship game.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports
Passing touchdowns: 1.5
Mahomes has surpassed this total 10 times in 19 games (53%) but he has also missed it in six of his last eight. In the two games he passed the mark, Mahomes threw for two touchdowns. He’s only thrown for more than two scores twice.
The 49ers have allowed two or more touchdown passes just seven times. In their last five games, however, quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns three times. Of course, one of those came in Week 18 in a meaningless game against the Los Angeles Rams when Carson Wentz beat them for a pair of touchdowns.
Rushing yards: 26.5
Mahomes has surpassed this total nine times in 19 games (47%), but he has also missed it in five of his last seven. In that time, he averaged just 19 rushing yards.
The 49ers have allowed at least 27 rushing yards to quarterbacks just five times. In their last six games, however, quarterbacks have hit that mark three times. Oddly, those three quarterbacks all rushed for at least 45 yards while the other three field generals rushed for a combined two yards. The quarterbacks who hit the mark were Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Wentz, who are all very mobile athletes.
Brock Purdy Props
Passing yards: 246.5
Purdy has surpassed this total 12 times in 18 games (67%), and he has hit it in five of his last seven. During that time frame, he averaged a solid 275 passing yards.
The Chiefs have allowed 247 or more passing yards just seven times. In their last seven games, quarterbacks have hit that mark just twice. One of those players was Easton Stick, who threw for 258 passing yards in a meaningless Week 18 matchup.
Passing touchdowns: 1.5
Purdy has surpassed this total nine times in 18 games (50%), but he has also missed it in four of his last five games. In the one game that he did pass the mark, Purdy threw for two touchdowns against an awful Washington Commanders team.
The Chiefs have allowed multiple touchdown passes just four times. Furthermore, no quarterback has thrown for more than one touchdown pass against them in their last eight games. The last quarterback to beat the Chiefs for two or more scoring strikes was Jordan Love, who had three touchdowns against them in Week 13.
Rushing yards: 12.5
Purdy has surpassed this total six times in 18 games (34%), but he has also hit it in each of the last two. In that time, he rushed for a combined 62 yards. On the flip side, Purdy had rushed for just 23 combined yards in his previous six contests.
The Chiefs have allowed 13 or more rushing yards to quarterbacks 12 times in 20 games (60%). In their last five games, their defense has allowed at least 25 yards in every contest. In that time, quarterbacks averaged 52 rushing yards. Of course, those three games came against Easton Stick, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Related: Stats and Trends for Super Bowl LVIII Player Props: Running Backs
Related: Stats and Trends for Super Bowl LVIII Player Props: Wide Receivers
Related: Stats and Trends for Super Bowl LVIII Player Props: Tight Ends
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