Big Game Betting Primer: Preview and Picks for 49ers-Chiefs in Vegas
Haven’t we learned by now to stop making Patrick Mahomes an underdog? Las Vegas, the Super Bowl host city for the first time ever, apparently hasn’t.
Depending on where you look, the Kansas City Chiefs are getting anywhere between 1.5 and 2.5 points Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. Feeling déjà vu? That’s because we saw this matchup four years ago in Super Bowl LIV, a 31–20 Chiefs comeback win.
Mahomes has been back twice since winning his first ring back in 2020, and in his fourth Super Bowl appearance, Kansas City is looking to become the first team to go back-to-back since the 2003–04 New England Patriots.
Now about those Niners… There are some familiar faces from the 2019 team, namely coach Kyle Shanahan, but Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are among the newcomers hoping to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to the Bay Area for the first time since the 1990s.
But enough buildup: Super Bowl Sunday is nearly here! Let’s get ready to bet the Big Game.
In today’s Winners Club:
Best Bets for 49ers vs. Chiefs Pt. II
The way the playoffs have unfolded so far, one would think Kansas City was the team that blew through the regular season like a juggernaut, earned a first-round bye and entered the playoffs as the betting favorite. But nope, that was San Francisco, which eked out a pair of three-point wins against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions as a heavy favorite to return to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs did not look like the Chiefs of old for much of the year, but when the calendar flipped to January, muscle memory kicked in. Kansas City blew out the Miami Dolphins and then went on the road to upset the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC yet again.
Even still, it’s the 49ers who are favored in the rematch.
Super Bowl LVIII
6:30 p.m. ET (CBS): 49ers (-1.5) vs. Chiefs | Total: 47.5
Straight Up Record: 14–5
ATS Record: 9–10
O/U Record: 11–8
Straight Up Record: 14–6
ATS Record: 12–7–1
O/U Record: 6–14
The MMQB Team shared their score predictions and MVP picks ahead of Sunday’s showdown. There’s a lot of Chiefs support, but there were several differing opinions regarding which player will win MVP.
Player Props and Beyond
You should know, there are far more ways to bet on the Super Bowl than simply the spread and total. There are boatloads of player props to choose from as well. For betting markets based on positions and players, look below, but Jen Piacenti also singled out her 10 favorite wagers, four of which are available at plus odds!
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: Over/under 260.5 passing yards? Mahomes hit that threshold in two of three Super Bowl appearances.
Brock Purdy: Over/under 12.5 rushing yards? Purdy had 48 in the NFC title game.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: Over/under 90.5 rushing yards? McCaffrey has hit that mark in three of five playoff games with the 49ers.
Isiah Pacheco: Over/under 16.5 receiving yards? Pacheco only achieved that total six times this season.
Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: Over/under 6.5 receptions? Rice has gone over that total twice already in the postseason.
Deebo Samuel: Over/under 21.5 yards for longest reception? Samuel is among the league leaders in yards after catch and he had a 26-yard grab last time out.
Brandon Aiyuk: Over/under 61.5 receiving yards? Aiyuk has hit this threshold in half of his games this season.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Over/under 70.5 receiving yards? Kelce has the highest yardage total in the Super Bowl, but he’s had 70-plus yards in 12 straight postseason games.
George Kittle: Over/under 3.5 receptions? Kittle has fallen short of this total 11 times this year.
Don’t think we’d ever neglect the novelty prop market! If you want insight on the coin toss, Gatorade color, National Anthem length, commercials, Taylor Swift air time and more, you came to the right place.
Fantasy Football, Super Bowl Edition
This is it, fantasy players. No more games — DFS or otherwise — until the fall. But just like we’ve had you covered for the previous 20 weeks of NFL action, our experts ranked the available options and shared their insight on how to build a winning lineup.
There’s going to be a lot of homogeneity with so few players to choose from, so it’s important to find a sleeper. Maybe Marquez Valdes-Scantling catches a deep touchdown or Elijah Mitchell punches in a goal-line touchdown.
You can find Michael Fabiano’s positional rankings here. Other than running back, a Chiefs player is his No. 1 option at every position.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
Jen Piacenti also weighed in with her usual DFS advice and offered up the contrarian play of plugging either defense or kicker into your MVP slot. Not only does that allow you the flexibility to start more studs elsewhere, but it’s also unlikely many other players will follow that bold strategy.
And finally, Fabiano shared 58 fantasy fun facts ahead of Super Bowl LVIII.
Did you know no quarterback has as many rushing yards in the history of the Big Game as Mahomes with 106? How about that the record for sacks taken in a Super Bowl is seven? Joe Burrow and Roger Staubach share that honor — or dishonor. Find out what Fabiano’s 56 other fun facts are here.
In Other News
Lamar Jackson Wins Second MVP at NFL Honors: The Ravens quarterback became the 11th player in league history to win multiple MVPs. Thursday’s award ceremony also saw Christian McCaffrey earn Offensive Player of the Year and C.J. Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
76ers Add Buddy Hield at the Trade Deadline: In what was a relatively quiet NBA trade deadline, Philadelphia acquired a knockdown shooter from the Pacers in exchange for Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz and three second-round picks.
Ranking Every Super Bowl from Worst to Best: Ahead of the 58th iteration of the Big Game, Matt Verderame reviewed them all from the forgettable blowouts to the infamous upsets.
As always, thanks for reading and sticking around through another NFL season — be sure to look out for another edition of Winners Club on Sunday hours before the Big game kicks off. Let’s win some bets this weekend!