NBA underdogs with injured stars (including the Bucks) made playoff bettors regret doubting them

Four NBA teams opened the playoffs Sunday without their best players. Those teams went a combined 3-1 against the spread in their respective Game 1s, with two winning outright.

It was a necessary reminder for bettors not to pick against teams simply because one player is out. Particularly when those teams have other stars who can step up.

With Kawhi Leonard ruled out shortly before tip-off, the Los Angeles Clippers moved from favorites against the Dallas Mavericks to 3.5-point underdogs. Bettors hammered Dallas at BetMGM, picking the Mavs on 89% of tickets ATS and 93% of the handle, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.

Not only did the Clippers make bettors pay for the lack of faith — leading by as much as 29 points in a blowout win — it was James Harden of all people who led the way with 28 points and eight assists.

Clippers are up 56-30 at halftime.

93% of money is on Mavs -3.5. pic.twitter.com/KB5HckIFOZ

— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 21, 2024

It was a similar story for the Milwaukee Bucks, who got 35 points from Damian Lillard with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined against the Indiana Pacers. The Bucks led by as much as 30 and won by 15 in a game they opened as favorites but closed as 1.5-point home dogs.

According to Ewing, 70% of bets and 74% of money ATS was on the Pacers.

Updated Pacers-Bucks betting at #BetMGM@Pacers open +3.5, now -1.5
70% of bets, 74% of money on Pacers

Total open 237.5, now 230.5
57% of bets, 62% of money on Under@Bucks open -155, now -105
52% of bets, 36% of money on Bucks

— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 21, 2024

The New Orleans Pelicans weren’t as lucky to win without Zion Williamson, dropping Game 1 against the 57-win Oklahoma City Thunder. But they gave the Thunder a better game than anyone could have expected, losing by just a single basket to cover an 8.5-point spread. The public got that one wrong too, favoring OKC against the spread on 59% of tickets, though 66% of money on the Pelicans suggests sharps were a little more prepared for a potential upset.

The only team unable to overcome the absence of a star Sunday was the Miami Heat, who trailed by as much as 34 points in a blowout loss to the Boston Celtics without Jimmy Butler. That may be the one series where the team on the other side is simply too good to lose. The others, though, are probably closer than bettors wanted to admit. Some adjusting is order before Game 2.